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Germany: a social security system of the verge of collaps

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  • Börsch-Supan, Axel

Abstract

Germany has one of the most generous retirement systems in the world. At the very same time, Germany also faces one of the most incisive population aging processes. The ratio of workers to pensioners will decrease to about one to one within the next generation. This will put the German pay-as-you-go social security system under sever pressure. This paper has three aims. First, it shows that the design of the current system has incentive effects which make coping with the future demographic challenges particularly difficult. Second, it shows that the German pay-as-you-go mechanism cannot be fixed by any single policy measure alone. Moreover, while a combination of several feasible measures may be able to stabilize the contribution rate, the internal rate of return of the pay-as-you-go system will fall to a level that is likely to create strong incentives to opt out wherever possible. Third, the paper shows that a transition to a funded system is feasible without creating a double burden on the transition generation.

Suggested Citation

  • Börsch-Supan, Axel, 1997. "Germany: a social security system of the verge of collaps," Papers 97-23, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    • Handle: RePEc:mnh:spaper:2895
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    File URL: https://madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/2895/1/dp97_23.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1998. "Simulating the Privatization of Social Security in General Equilibrium," NBER Chapters, in: Privatizing Social Security, pages 265-311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Schnabel, Reinhold, 1997. "Intergenerational Distribution and Pension Reform in Germany," Working Papers 14962, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    3. Axel Borsch-Supan & Reinhold Schnabel, 1999. "Social Security and Retirement in Germany," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security and Retirement around the World, pages 135-180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Martin Feldstein & Andrew Samwick, 1998. "The Transition Path in Privatizing Social Security," NBER Chapters, in: Privatizing Social Security, pages 215-264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Axel Borsch-Supan & Reinhold Schnabel, 1999. "Social Security and Retirement in Germany," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security and Retirement around the World, pages 135-180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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