IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mnb/wpaper/2016-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Long-Term Evaluation of Recent Hungarian Pension Reforms

Author

Listed:
  • Christoph Freudenberg

    (Institute of Public Finance Freiburg University)

  • Tamás Berki

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank, Central Bank of Hungary)

  • Ádám Reiff

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank, Central Bank of Hungary)

Abstract

This paper studies the effect of Hungarian pension reforms between 2009-2012 on the adequacy and long-term fiscal stability of the Hungarian public pension system. For the adequacy analysis, we use a micro simulation model to project future initial pension levels relative to future gross wages. For the analysis of fiscal stability, we use a generational accounting-based macro model to forecast future yearly cash balances and calculate implicit pension liability (IPL) indicators. We find that major recent reforms have stabilized the public pension system until around 2035, but after this, mainly due to unfavorable demographic developments, we project increasing deficits that reach about 4% of GDP by 2060.

Suggested Citation

  • Christoph Freudenberg & Tamás Berki & Ádám Reiff, 2016. "A Long-Term Evaluation of Recent Hungarian Pension Reforms," MNB Working Papers 2016/2, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    • Handle: RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2016/2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.mnb.hu/letoltes/mnb-wp-2016-2-final.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alessie, Rob & Angelini, Viola & van Santen, Peter, 2013. "Pension wealth and household savings in Europe: Evidence from SHARELIFE," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 308-328.
    2. Balázs Egert, 2012. "The impact of changes in second pension pillars on public finances in Central and Eastern Europe," Working Papers hal-04141069, HAL.
    3. Orazio P. Attanasio & Susann Rohwedder, 2003. "Pension Wealth and Household Saving: Evidence from Pension Reforms in the United Kingdom," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1499-1521, December.
    4. Paul van den Noord & Richard Herd, 1993. "Pension Liabilities in the Seven Major Economies," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 142, OECD Publishing.
    5. Michael Hurd & Pierre‐Carl Michaud & Susann Rohwedder, 2012. "The Displacement Effect of Public Pensions on the Accumulation of Financial Assets," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 33(1), pages 107-128, March.
    6. Holzmann, Robert & Palacios, Robert & Zviniene, Asta, 2004. "Implicit pension debt: issues, measurement and scope in international perspective," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 30153, The World Bank.
    7. Monika Queisser & Edward Whitehouse, 2006. "Neutral or Fair?: Actuarial Concepts and Pension-System Design," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 40, OECD Publishing.
    8. Andras Simonovits, 2011. "The Mandatory Private Pension Pillar in Hungary: An Obituary," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1112, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Simonovits, András, 2020. "A magyar nyugdíjrendszer középtávú feszültségei [The middle-term tensions of the Hungarian pension system]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 456-473.
    2. à kos Péter & Erzsébet Németh & Bálint Tamás Vargha, 2020. "Sustainability of the Pension System, Risks and Opportunities," Public Finance Quarterly, State Audit Office of Hungary, vol. 65(6), pages 57-85.
    3. Simonovits, András, 2022. "Nyugdíjstratégiai alternatívák, 2023-2029 [Pension strategy alternatives, 2023-2029]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 902-928.
    4. Tibor Czegledi & Endre Szabo & Melinda Tir & Andras Simonovits, 2016. "Retirement rules in Hungary: gainers and losers," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1631, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    5. Erik Granseth & Wolfgang Keck & Wolfgang Nagl & Melinda Tir & Andras Simonovits, 2016. "Negative correlation between retirement age and contribution length?," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1633, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    6. Larysa Yakymova, 2018. "Modeling the Diffusion of Private Pension Provision," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 65(4), pages 385-405, December.
    7. László, Csaba, 2018. "A magánnyugdíjpénztári rendszer "elszámolása" ["Reckoning up" the private pension system]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 861-902.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Klaus Kaier & Christoph Müller, 2015. "New figures on unfunded public pension entitlements across Europe: concept, results and applications," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(4), pages 865-895, November.
    2. Marta Lachowska & Michał Myck, 2018. "The Effect of Public Pension Wealth on Saving and Expenditure," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 284-308, August.
    3. Mastrogiacomo, Mauro & Dillingh, Rik & Li, Yue, 2023. "The displacement effect of compulsory pension savings on private savings. Evidence from the Netherlands, using pension funds supervisory data," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    4. Mauro Mastrogiacomo & Yue Li & Rik Dillingh, 2022. "The displacement effect of compulsory pension savings on private savings. Evidence from the Netherlands, using pension funds supervisory data," Working Papers 747, DNB.
    5. Serena Yu, 2016. "Retiree Welfare and the 2009 Pension Increase: Impacts from an Australian Experiment," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(296), pages 67-80, March.
    6. Thomas Blanchet & Yves Dubois & Anthony Marino & Muriel Roger, 2016. "Patrimoine privé et retraite en France," Revue française d'économie, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 207-244.
    7. Heidler, Matthias & Müller, Christoph & Weddige, Olaf, 2009. "Measuring accrued-to-date liabilities of public pension systems: Method, data and limitations," FZG Discussion Papers 37, University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG).
    8. Anna d’Addio & Muriel Roger & Frédérique Savignac, 2019. "Pensions and Household Savings: Cross-Country Heterogeneity in Europe," Working papers 738, Banque de France.
    9. Mathieu Lefebvre & Sergio Perelman, 2016. "Social security wealth and household asset holdings: new evidence from Belgium," Working Papers of BETA 2016-38, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    10. Luis Henrique Paiva & Santiago Falluh Varella, 2019. "The impacts of social protection benefits on behaviours potentially related to economic growth: a literature review," Working Papers 183, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    11. Dillingh, Rik, 2016. "Empirical essays on behavioral economics and lifecycle decisions," Other publications TiSEM 0e2143e3-bd86-4302-90eb-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. Esteban García-Miralles & Jonathan M. Leganza, 2024. "Public Pensions and Private Savings," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 366-405, May.
    13. Francesco Caloia & Mauro Mastrogiacomo & Irene Simonetti, 2023. "Shocks to Occupational Pensions and Household Savings," Working Papers 775, DNB.
    14. Pirmin Fessler & Martin Schürz, 2018. "Private Wealth Across European Countries: The Role of Income, Inheritance and the Welfare State," Journal of Human Development and Capabilities, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 521-549, October.
    15. Blau, David M., 2011. "Pensions, Household Saving, and Welfare: A Dynamic Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 5554, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Etgeton, Stefan & Fischer, Björn & Ye, Han, 2023. "The effect of increasing retirement age on households’ savings and consumption expenditure," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    17. Creedy, John & Gemmell, Norman & Scobie, Grant, 2015. "Pensions, savings and housing: A life-cycle framework with policy simulations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 346-357.
    18. Alessie, Rob & Angelini, Viola & van Santen, Peter, 2013. "Pension wealth and household savings in Europe: Evidence from SHARELIFE," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 308-328.
    19. Guiling Zhao & Yunpeng Fu & Deyu Zhou, 2024. "Study on the Impact of China’s Pension Insurance System on the Savings Rate of Urban Residents Based on the Preventive Saving Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-23, October.
    20. Balázs Egert, 2012. "The impact of changes in second pension pillars on public finances in Central and Eastern Europe," Working Papers hal-04141069, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pension reforms; Sustainability of pension systems; Micro simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2016/2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lorant Kaszab (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mnbgvhu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.