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Inflation asymmetry, menu costs and aggregation bias – A further case for state dependent pricing

Author

Listed:
  • Péter Karádi

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

  • Ádám Reiff

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

Abstract

Asymmetric inflation response to aggregate shocks is an identifying macro-prediction of state dependent pricing models with trend inflation (Ball and Mankiw, 1994). The paper uses the natural experiment of symmetric value-added tax (VAT) changes in Hungary with highly asymmetric inflation responses to provide further evidence for state-dependent pricing and for the Ball-Mankiw conjecture. The paper shows, furthermore, that while a standard menu cost model like that of Golosov and Lucas (2007) underestimates the observed asymmetry, a model of multi-product firms that takes sectoral heterogeneity explicitly into consideration can quantitatively account for the inflation asymmetry observed in the data. This aggregation bias of the standard model is the result of the strong interaction term between trend inflation and menu costs in determining asymmetry in the model, and the positive correlation between sectoral inflation rates and menu costs in the data. The paper implies that the real effects of negative monetary shocks can be substantial even in the standard Golosov and Lucas (2007) model if these additional factors are taken into consideration.

Suggested Citation

  • Péter Karádi & Ádám Reiff, 2010. "Inflation asymmetry, menu costs and aggregation bias – A further case for state dependent pricing," MNB Working Papers 2010/3, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
  • Handle: RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2010/3
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    File URL: http://www.mnb.hu/letoltes/wp-2010-3.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ellingsen, Tore & Hassler, John & Friberg, Richard, 2006. "Menu Costs and Asymmetric Price Adjustment," CEPR Discussion Papers 5749, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Etienne Gagnon, 2009. "Price Setting during Low and High Inflation: Evidence from Mexico," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(3), pages 1221-1263.
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    Cited by:

    1. Etienne Gagnon & David López-Salido & Nicolas Vincent, 2013. "Individual Price Adjustment along the Extensive Margin," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 235-281.
    2. Bo E. Honoré & Daniel Kaufmann & Sarah Lein, 2012. "Asymmetries in Price‐Setting Behavior: New Microeconometric Evidence from Switzerland," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(s2), pages 211-236, December.
    3. Santiago E. Alvarez & Sarah M. Lein, 2020. "Tracking inflation on a daily basis," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-13, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    aggregation bias; inflation asymmetry; menu cost; sectoral heterogeneity; value-added tax;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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