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Inflation Expectations in Hungary

Author

Listed:
  • Péter Gábriel

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary))

  • Judit Rariga

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary))

  • Judit Várhegyi

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary))

Abstract

The aim of this study is to provide an overview of the main characteristics of expectations of professional forecasters, households and firms in respect of Hungarian inflation trends. In countries where an inflation targeting regime is in place, inflation expectations are of key importance from the perspective of monetary policy and play a significant role in central bank decisionmaking and follow-up communication. The inflation expectations of economic agents are relevant for central banks for two main reasons. On the one hand, inflation expectations can provide direct information concerning the credibility of monetary policy. On the other hand, they may carry important information that can help central banks in forecasting macroeconomic developments. For the purpose of understanding and forecasting inflation developments, most central banks monitor the expectations of individual economic agents on a regular basis. Besides average expectations, the dispersion of inflation expecta tions may also contain significant information for central banks. For Hungary, inflation expectation data are available from surveys based on quantitative or qualitative questionnaires for households, firms and professional forecasters.

Suggested Citation

  • Péter Gábriel & Judit Rariga & Judit Várhegyi, 2014. "Inflation Expectations in Hungary," MNB Occasional Papers 2014/113, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    • Handle: RePEc:mnb:opaper:2014/113
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    File URL: https://www.mnb.hu/letoltes/gabrielrarigavarhegyi-op-en.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Péter Gábriel & György Molnár & Judit Várhegyi, 2016. "Fixing an impaired monetary transmission mechanism: the Hungarian experience," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, volume 89, pages 179-191, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Magdalena Szyszko & Aleksandra Rutkowska, 2019. "Forward-looking component in consumers’ expectations and inflation forecast targeting: the case of six European economies," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 37(1), pages 77-112.
    3. Niu, Xiaoxiao & Harvey, Nigel, 2022. "Context effects in inflation surveys: The influence of additional information and prior questions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 988-1004.
    4. Fransiskus Xaverius Lara Aba, 2021. "Institutional Change and Macroeconomic Variables in the ASEAN—Indonesia, Vietnam, and Cambodia: The Effects of a Trade War between China and USA," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-21, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation expectations; survey; central bank;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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