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Adjustment of global imbalances: Illustrative scenarios for Hungary

Author

Listed:
  • Cecília Hornok

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

  • Zoltán M. Jakab

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

  • Máté Barnabás Tóth

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

Abstract

In this study we examine the impact on Hungary of a possible correction of global imbalances. We distinguished four different channels of the global adjustment process, which are widely referred to in the literature (fiscal tightening in the U.S.; housing price correction in the US; an increase in the risk premium of dollar assets; increase in domestic demand in the Asian region) and analyzed them through model simulations. We constructed global scenarios using the NIGEM model, while we captured the domestic impacts using the Quarterly Projection Model (NEM) of the Magyar Nemzeti Bank. According to our results, both the global and domestic effects differ significantly with respect to whether the correction originates from the U.S. or Asia and whether it is a result of policy or market processes. We found that a possible global correction will pass through to Hungary mainly through the Eurozone countries, thus its main impact will be relatively dampened. The responses of domestic macroeconomic variables depend on our assumptions on the reaction of monetary policy and the developments in the risk premium on forint denominated assets.

Suggested Citation

  • Cecília Hornok & Zoltán M. Jakab & Máté Barnabás Tóth, 2006. "Adjustment of global imbalances: Illustrative scenarios for Hungary," MNB Occasional Papers 2006/59, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    • Handle: RePEc:mnb:opaper:2006/59
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    File URL: http://www.mnb.hu/letoltes/op-59.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Havas, Attila & Nyiri, Lajos, 2007. "A magyar nemzeti innovációs rendszer: Háttértanulmány az OECD 2007/2008. évi innovációs országjelentése számára [National system of innovation in Hungary: Background report for the OECD Country Rev," MPRA Paper 69379, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Júlia Király & Márton Nagy & Viktor E. Szabó, 2008. "Contagion and the beginning of the crisis – pre-Lehman period," MNB Occasional Papers 2008/76, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    3. Havas, Attila & Nyiri, Lajos, 2007. "National system of innovation in Hungary," MPRA Paper 67161, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; global inbalalnces; forecasting; simulation.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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