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The expected effect of the euro on the Hungarian monetary transmission

Author

Listed:
  • Gábor Orbán

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

  • Zoltán Szalai

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

Abstract

The most important mechanism through which monetary policy affects the real economy in Hungary is the exchange rate channel. With euro adoption, this mechanism will largely disappear and the impact of monetary policy will be transmitted via the interest rate channel, presently seen as rather weak. This has raised concerns that the influence of monetary policy on the real economy in Hungary could be very limited after euro adoption. On top of this, other concerns have been voiced as regards potential asymmetries in the wage-setting behaviour, the exchange rate and credit channels. Based on the experience of today’s euro area participating countries and the structural characteristics of the Hungarian economy, this paper argues that after euro adoption 1) we may expect a broadening of the scope of the interest rate channel of monetary policy after euro adoption, 2) there are no institutional obstacles in the way of the effective functioning of the expectations channel in Hungary 3) substantially different monetary conditions from that in the euro area as a result of a different trade orientation are unlikely, and, finally 4) some asymmetries in the balance sheet channel may continue to exist for some time between Hungary and the core euro area countries but its effect will be significantly smaller after euro zone entry.

Suggested Citation

  • Gábor Orbán & Zoltán Szalai, 2005. "The expected effect of the euro on the Hungarian monetary transmission," MNB Background Studies (discontinued) 2005/4, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    • Handle: RePEc:mnb:backgr:2005/4
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    File URL: http://www.mnb.hu/letoltes/bs2005-4v.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Balazs Vonnak, 2008. "The Hungarian monetary transmission mechanism: an assessment," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 235-257, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary transmission mechanism; transmission channels; EMU participation.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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