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Demographic Change in Asia: the Impact on Optimal National Saving, Investment and the Current Account

Author

Listed:
  • Guest, R.S.
  • McDonald, I.M.

Abstract

By simulating a model of the optimal level of saving in a small open economy, this paper calculates the levels of optimal national saving, investment and the current account balance for five Asian countries, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, Malaysia and Philippines, for the period from 1997 to 2050. The calculations focus on the implications of making allowance for the changing demographic structure of the population on employment participation, labour productivity and consumption demands. The simulations show that variations in prospective demographic change across countries cause considerable variations in the patterns of their optimal rates of national saving, reinforcing the idea that evaluations of a country's performance on saving should take account of the prospective demographic structure of its population.

Suggested Citation

  • Guest, R.S. & McDonald, I.M., 1999. "Demographic Change in Asia: the Impact on Optimal National Saving, Investment and the Current Account," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 726, The University of Melbourne.
    • Handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:726
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2007. "Comment on "Population Aging, Fiscal Policies, and National Saving: Predictions for the Korean Economy"," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy and Management in East Asia, pages 372-373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Young Jun Chun, 2006. "Population Aging, Fiscal Policies, and National Saving: Predictions for Korean Economy," NBER Working Papers 12265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. John Janssen, 2002. "Long-term fiscal projections and their relationship with the intertemporal budget constraint: An application to New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/05, New Zealand Treasury.
    4. Young Jun Chun, 2007. "Population Aging, Fiscal Policies, and National Saving: Predictions for the Korean Economy," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy and Management in East Asia, pages 339-372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    DEMOGRAPHY ; ASIA ; INVESTMENTS ; INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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