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Egyptian and Syrian commodity markets after the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire: a Bayesian structural VECM analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Laura Panza

    (Department of Economics, University of Melbourne)

  • Tomasz Wozniak

    (Department of Economics, University of Melbourne)

Abstract

The disruption of the Ottoman Empire caused dramatic changes to the economic and political structure of the Middle East. The newly established nations, incorporated into British and French formal and informal empires, actively implemented a range of protectionist policies, thus disrupting the regions traditional trade flows and patterns. This paper investigates the impact of this new economic setting on commodity market integration in Syria and Egypt, using Bayesian inference. After testing for co-integration through the calculation of Bayes factors and computing impulse response functions, our results point to the absence of cross border market integration.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Panza & Tomasz Wozniak, 2015. "Egyptian and Syrian commodity markets after the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire: a Bayesian structural VECM analysis," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1193, The University of Melbourne.
    • Handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:1193
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    File URL: http://fbe.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/1427457/1193PanzaWozniak.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market integration; Middle East; interwar; Cointegration; Posterior probability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N15 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Asia including Middle East
    • N75 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Asia including Middle East
    • N95 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History - - - Asia including Middle East
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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