IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mcm/deptwp/2004-01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Rate of Return Parity in Experimental Asset Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Jason Childs
  • Stuart Mestelman

Abstract

This paper applies experimental methods to evaluate the completeness of arbitrage and rate of return parity in simultaneous asset markets in which the assets are denominated in different currencies. Two assets, which return uncertain, but known, dividends in each trading period, are traded over twenty periods, after which the asset has no value. Results indicate that risk neutral rate of return parity is a strong predictor of relative asset prices when assets have common expected dividends and the expected dividends have common variances. The predictive power of risk neutral rate of return parity is reduced as the assets become differentiated.

Suggested Citation

  • Jason Childs & Stuart Mestelman, 2004. "Rate of Return Parity in Experimental Asset Markets," Department of Economics Working Papers 2004-01, McMaster University.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcm:deptwp:2004-01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://socserv.mcmaster.ca/econ/rsrch/papers/archive/rrp2004jan27.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Friedman,Daniel & Sunder,Shyam, 1994. "Experimental Methods," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521456821, October.
    2. Ayuso, Juan & Restoy, Fernando, 1996. "Interest rate parity and foreign exchange risk premia in the ERM," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 369-382, June.
    3. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    4. Mayfield, E. Scott & Murphy, Robert G., 1992. "Interest rate parity and the exchange risk premium Evidence from panel data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 319-324, November.
    5. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1986. "Interpreting Tests of Forward Discount Bias Using Survey Data on Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-1151, September.
    8. Smith, Vernon L, 1985. "Experimental Economics: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 264-272, March.
    9. Sunder, S., 1992. "Experimental Asset Markets: A Survey," GSIA Working Papers 1992-19, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    10. Allan W. Gregory, 1987. "Testing Interest Rate Parity and Rational Expectations for Canada and the United States," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 20(2), pages 289-305, May.
    11. Dutton, Marilyn Miller, 1993. "Real interest rate parity new measures and tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 62-77, February.
    12. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    13. Frachot, Antoine, 1996. "A reexamination of the uncovered interest rate parity hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 419-437, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Matthias Weber & John Duffy & Arthur Schram, 2019. "Credit Default Swap Regulation in Experimental Bond Markets," Working Papers on Finance 1905, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    2. Duffy, John & Friedman, Dan & Rabanal, Jean Paul & Rud, Olga, 2022. "The impact of ETF index inclusion on stock prices," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2022/2, University of Stavanger.
    3. John Duffy & Jean Paul Rabanal & Olga A. Rud, 2022. "Market experiments with multiple assets: A survey," Chapters, in: Sascha Füllbrunn & Ernan Haruvy (ed.), Handbook of Experimental Finance, chapter 18, pages 213-224, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. repec:bla:ecinqu:v:51:y:2013:i:3:p:1731-1749 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Marina Fiedler, 2011. "Experience and Confidence in an Internet‐Based Asset Market Experiment," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 78(1), pages 30-52, July.
    6. repec:grz:wpsses:2014-01 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Marina Fiedler, 2011. "Symposium: Experience and Confidence in an Internet-Based Asset Market Experiment," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 78(1), pages 30-52, July.
    8. Marina Fiedler, 2011. "Symposium: Experience and Confidence in an Internet-Based Asset Market Experiment," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 78(1), pages 30-52, July.
    9. Childs, Jason, 2009. "Rate of return parity and currency crises in experimental asset markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 157-170, February.
    10. Owen Powell & Natalia Shestakova, 2017. "Experimental asset markets: behavior and bubbles," Chapters, in: Morris Altman (ed.), Handbook of Behavioural Economics and Smart Decision-Making, chapter 21, pages 375-391, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Debapriya Jojo Paul & Julia Henker & Sian Owen, 2019. "The aggregate impacts of tournament incentives in experimental asset markets," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 22(2), pages 441-476, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2019. "iCurrency?," Papers 1911.01272, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2019.
    2. Nuzzo, Simone & Morone, Andrea, 2017. "Asset markets in the lab: A literature review," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 42-50.
    3. Sonnemans, Joep & Hommes, Cars & Tuinstra, Jan & van de Velden, Henk, 2004. "The instability of a heterogeneous cobweb economy: a strategy experiment on expectation formation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 453-481, August.
    4. Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186, Elsevier.
    5. Maggiori, Matteo, 2021. "International Macroeconomics With Imperfect Financial Markets," SocArXiv z8g6r, Center for Open Science.
    6. Saskia ter Ellen & Willem F. C. Verschoor, 2018. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Asset Price Dynamics: A Survey of Recent Evidence," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Fredj Jawadi (ed.), Uncertainty, Expectations and Asset Price Dynamics, pages 53-79, Springer.
    7. Emmanuel Farhi & Xavier Gabaix, "undated". "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," Working Paper 71001, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    8. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    9. Caginalp, G. & Ilieva, V., 2008. "The dynamics of trader motivations in asset bubbles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 66(3-4), pages 641-656, June.
    10. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Oehmke, Martin, 2013. "Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1221-1288, Elsevier.
    11. John Sequeira & MICHAEL McALEER, 2000. "Testing the risk premium and cost-of-carry hypotheses for currency futures contracts," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 277-289.
    12. Hirota, Shinichi & Sunder, Shyam, 2007. "Price bubbles sans dividend anchors: Evidence from laboratory stock markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1875-1909, June.
    13. C. H. Hommes, 2001. "Financial markets as nonlinear adaptive evolutionary systems," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 149-167.
    14. So, Raymond W., 2001. "Price and volatility spillovers between interest rate and exchange value of the US dollar," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 95-107.
    15. Christophe Chamley, 2006. "Complementarities in information acquisition with short-term trades," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-042, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    16. Groth, Charlotta & Zampolli, Fabrizio, 2010. "Macroeconomic stability and the real interest rate: a cross-country analysis," Discussion Papers 30, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    17. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H. & Wagener, Florian O. O., 2005. "Evolutionary dynamics in markets with many trader types," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 7-42, February.
    18. Huan Xie & Jipeng Zhang, 2016. "Bubbles and experience: An experiment with a steady inflow of new traders," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 82(4), pages 1349-1373, April.
    19. Javier Bianchi & Saki Bigio & Charles Engel, 2021. "Scrambling for Dollars: International Liquidity, Banks and Exchange Rates," Working Papers 786, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    20. Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2014. "Heterogeneity of Agents, Transactions Costs and the Exchange Rate," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 2, pages 33-70, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mcm:deptwp:2004-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/demcmca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.