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What has been happening to Indonesia’s Manufacturing Industry?

Author

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  • Kiki Verico

    (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI))

Abstract

This paper is the second part of the first paper published by the LPEM UI on January 18th 2021 (Verico, 2021a). This first part discussed Indonesia’s output gap, the global pandemic’s impact, and the scenario to avoid the middle-income trap by 2040. In this second part, the paper figures out the manufacturing sector performance from 1968 until 2019, before the global pandemic hit Indonesia’s economy. Indonesia’s economy needs an adjustment that depends on the pandemic containment to achieve even higher economic growth to compensate for economic contraction during the pandemic. This paper finds that Indonesia’s manufacture can boost economic growth, decrease open unemployment and improve productivity. This paper argues that Indonesia can achieve the second wave of the Chenery-Syrquin phenomenon of economic transformation from service to manufacturing through two scenarios: one, medium to long-run over the enhancement of the backward linkage of global value chains (GVCs), and two, natural short-run with the role of information and communication technology (ICT).

Suggested Citation

  • Kiki Verico, 2021. "What has been happening to Indonesia’s Manufacturing Industry?," LPEM FEBUI Working Papers 202158, LPEM, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, revised 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202158
    as

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    File URL: https://www.lpem.org/repec/lpe/papers/WP202158.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kiki Verico, 2017. "The Future of the ASEAN Economic Integration," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-137-59613-0, March.
    2. Stephen V. Marks & Sjamsu Rahardja, 2012. "Effective rates of protection revisited for Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(1), pages 57-84, April.
    3. Kiki Verico, 2021. "Global Pandemic 2020: Indonesia’s Output Gap and Middle-Income Trap Scenario," LPEM FEBUI Working Papers 202157, LPEM, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, revised 2021.
    4. Stephen V. Marks, 2017. "Non-Tariff Trade Regulations in Indonesia: Nominal and Effective Rates of Protection," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(3), pages 333-357, September.
    5. Kazunobu Hayakawa & Toshiyuki Matsuura & Sadayuki Takii, 2017. "Does Trade Liberalization Boost Quality Upgrading? Evidence From Indonesian Plant-Product-Level Data," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 55(3), pages 171-188, September.
    6. Justin Yifu Lin, 2017. "Industrial policies for avoiding the middle-income trap: a new structural economics perspective," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 5-18, January.
    7. Mary Amiti & Jozef Konings, 2007. "Trade Liberalization, Intermediate Inputs, and Productivity: Evidence from Indonesia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1611-1638, December.
    8. Naudé, Wim & Szirmai, Adam, 2012. "The importance of manufacturing in economic development: Past, present and future perspectives," MERIT Working Papers 2012-041, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    9. Paul M. Romer, 1994. "The Origins of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 3-22, Winter.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic growth — manufacturing — industrial structure — economic transformation — Information Communication Technology;

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology

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