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Averting the Nazi Seizure of Power

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  • Stoegbauer, Christian
  • Komlos, John

Abstract

The Great Depression in Germany led to the radicalization of the electorate, leading the country and then the world into the darkest days of Western Civilization. Could it have been otherwise? This paper explores whether the NSDAP takeover might have been averted with a fiscal policy that lowered the unemployment rate in those parts of Germany where their support rose most rapidly. A counterfactual simulation model based on estimates of the relationship between unemployment and the radical vote at the electoral district level provides a framework for considering how much lower unemployment would have to have been in those districts to prevent the NSDAP from becoming a formidable political force in Germany. Budget neutrality is maintained, so that the simulations do not depend on an expanded fiscal policy. The results indicate that such a policy could well have averted the NSDAP's seizure of power, and the catastrophe that followed in its wake.

Suggested Citation

  • Stoegbauer, Christian & Komlos, John, 2004. "Averting the Nazi Seizure of Power," Discussion Papers in Economics 305, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:lmu:muenec:305
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    File URL: https://epub.ub.uni-muenchen.de/305/1/stoegbauer_komlos.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stögbauer, Christian, 2001. "The radicalisation of the German electorate: Swinging to the Right and the Left in the twilight of the Weimar Republic," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(2), pages 251-280, August.
    2. Fishback, Price V. & Kantor, Shawn & Wallis, John Joseph, 2003. "Can the New Deal's three Rs be rehabilitated? A program-by-program, county-by-county analysis," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 278-307, July.
    3. John Komlos & Scott Eddie, 1997. "Cliometric Studies on German Economic History," Books by John Komlos, Department of Economics, University of Munich, number 8, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sripad Motiram & Karthikeya Naraparaju, 2014. "Unemployment Burden and its Distribution: Theory and Evidence from India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2014-026, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    2. Sripad Motiram & Karthikeya Naraparaju, 2014. "Unemployment Burden and its Distribution: Theory and Evidence from India," Working Papers id:6066, eSocialSciences.
    3. Martina Cioni & Giovanni Federico & Michelangelo Vasta, 2020. "The two Revolutions in Economic History," Working Papers 0192, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    4. Sripad Motiram & Karthikeya Naraparaju, 2014. "Unemployment burden and its distribution: Theory and evidence from India," Working Papers 341, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    5. Galofré-Vilà, Gregori & Meissner, Christopher M. & McKee, Martin & Stuckler, David, 2021. "Austerity and the Rise of the Nazi Party," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(1), pages 81-113, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Great Depression; Germany; NSDAP; counterfactual simulation model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-
    • N34 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: 1913-
    • N44 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Europe: 1913-

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