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More than a dummy: The probability of failure, survival and acquisition of firms in financial distress

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  • Åstebro, Thomas
  • Winter, Joachim

Abstract

We discuss three methodological issues concerning forecasts of the outcome of financial distress. First, we argue that rather than using a binary model the outcome of financial distress should be modeled using a multinomial specification that distinguishes between failure, survival as going concern, and acquisition. We also argue for a random rather than matched-pair sampling technique to better reflect decision making reality. Finally, we investigate the value of using industry-mean adjusted regressors. We find that the binary bankruptcy model is mis-specified relative to the multinomial model, that the matched sampling technique overstates model accuracy and that industry specific intercepts have better explanatory power than industry-adjusted regressors.

Suggested Citation

  • Åstebro, Thomas & Winter, Joachim, 2012. "More than a dummy: The probability of failure, survival and acquisition of firms in financial distress," Munich Reprints in Economics 20185, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:lmu:muenar:20185
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    Cited by:

    1. DeTienne, Dawn R. & McKelvie, Alexander & Chandler, Gaylen N., 2015. "Making sense of entrepreneurial exit strategies: A typology and test," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 255-272.
    2. XU Peng, 2021. "Population Aging and Small Business Exits," Discussion papers 21091, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Iwasaki, Ichiro & Kočenda, Evžen & Shida, Yoshisada, 2021. "Distressed acquisitions: Evidence from European emerging markets," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 962-990.
    4. Carmen Cotei & Joseph Farhat, 2018. "The M&A exit outcomes of new, young firms," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 545-567, March.
    5. Köke, Jens, 2001. "Determinants of acquisition and failure: stylized facts and lessons for empirical studies," ZEW Discussion Papers 01-30, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    6. Florian Heiss & Jens Köke, 2004. "Dynamics in Ownership and Firm Survival: Evidence from Corporate Germany," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 10(1), pages 167-195, March.
    7. Cefis, Elena & Marsili, Orietta, 2012. "Going, going, gone. Exit forms and the innovative capabilities of firms," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(5), pages 795-807.
    8. Carmen Cotei & Joseph Farhat & Indu Khurana, 2022. "The impact of policy uncertainty on the M&A exit of startup firms," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(1), pages 99-120, January.
    9. Kaiser, Ulrich & Kuhn, Johan M., 2020. "The value of publicly available, textual and non-textual information for startup performance prediction," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 14(C).
    10. Stéphane Esquerré, 2019. "How do judges judge? Evidence of local effect on French bankruptcy judgments," Working Papers hal-02291688, HAL.
    11. Manuel Rico & Naresh R. Pandit & Francisco Puig, 2021. "SME insolvency, bankruptcy, and survival: an examination of retrenchment strategies," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 111-126, June.
    12. Marek Vochozka, 2010. "Vývoj metod komplexního hodnocení výkonnosti podniku [Development of Methods for Comprehensive Evaluation of Business Performance]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2010(5), pages 675-688.
    13. Nina Ponikvar & Katja Zajc Kejžar & Darja Peljhan, 2018. "The role of financial constraints for alternative firm exit modes," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 85-103, June.
    14. Sofie Balcaen & Sophie Manigart & Jozefien Buyze & Hubert Ooghe, 2012. "Firm exit after distress: differentiating between bankruptcy, voluntary liquidation and M&A," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 949-975, November.
    15. Jens Köke, 2002. "Dynamics in ownership and firm survival: Evidence from corporate Germany," MEA discussion paper series 02013, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    16. Kaiser, Ulrich & Kuhn, Johan Moritz, 2020. "Value of Publicly Available, Textual and Non-textuThe al Information for Startup Performance Prediction," IZA Discussion Papers 13029, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Salwa Kessioui & Michalis Doumpos & Constantin Zopounidis, 2023. "A Bibliometric Overview of the State-of-the-Art in Bankruptcy Prediction Methods and Applications," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Emilios Galariotis & Alexandros Garefalakis & Christos Lemonakis & Marios Menexiadis & Constantin Zo (ed.), Governance and Financial Performance Current Trends and Perspectives, chapter 6, pages 123-153, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    18. Goktan, M. Sinan & Kieschnick, Robert, 2012. "A target's perspective on the effects of ATPs in takeovers after recognizing its choice in the process," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 1088-1103.
    19. Srinivasan, Raji & Lilien, Gary L. & Rangaswamy, Arvind, 2008. "Survival of high tech firms: The effects of diversity of product–market portfolios, patents, and trademarks," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 119-128.

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