IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/lec/leecon/99-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Cointegration Analysis-Causality Testing and Wagner's Law The Case of Turkey, 1950-1990

Author

Listed:
  • Safa Demirbas

Abstract

This paper investigates statistically the existence of a long-run relationship between public expenditure and GNP (Wagner’s Law) using data for Turkey over the period 1950-1990. Recent advances in time series analysis have permitted the investigation of the long-run relationship between public expenditure and GNP in terms of cointegration analysis. In the case of Wagner’s Law, evidence of cointegration is sufficient to establish a long-run relationship between public expenditure and income. However, to support Wagner’s Law would require unidirectional causality from income to public expenditure. Therefore cointegration should be seen as a necessary condition for Wagner’s Law, but not sufficient. Hence, conditional on cointegration results, it is necessary to look at the causality properties of the model(s). Using the Engle and Granger cointegration test, the Granger Causality test and Turkish time series aggregate data for the period 1950-1990, we find no empirical support for Wagner’s Law.

Suggested Citation

  • Safa Demirbas, 1999. "Cointegration Analysis-Causality Testing and Wagner's Law The Case of Turkey, 1950-1990," Discussion Papers in Economics 99/3, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    • Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:99/3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.le.ac.uk/economics/research/RePEc/lec/leecon/econ99-3.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Isiaq O. Oseni & Ibrahim A. Adekunle, 2020. "Relevance of Wagner’s Hypothesis in Achieving Sustainable Development Agenda in Nigeria," Research Africa Network Working Papers 20/006, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    2. Sobhee, S. K. & Joysuree, V., 2004. "The Implications of Openness for WAGNER’S Law. An International Comparison of 20 Countries, 1971-2000," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(3).
    3. Cosimo Magazzino, 2012. "The Nexus between Disaggregated Public Spending and GDP in the Euro Area," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2560-2579.
    4. Masudul Hasan Adil & Aadil Ahmad Ganaie & B. Kamaiah, 2017. "Wagner’s Hypothesis: An Empirical Verification," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 6(1), pages 1-12, January.
    5. Ekong, Christopher N. & Onye, Kenneth U., 2016. "A Framework for Sustaining Rural Development Program: Evidence from Micro-Panel Data in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 88358, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Henryk Gurgul & Łukasz Lach & Roland Mestel, 2012. "The relationship between budgetary expenditure and economic growth in Poland," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 20(1), pages 161-182, March.
    7. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2010. "Wagner's law and Italian disaggregated public spending: some empirical evidences," MPRA Paper 26662, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Isiaq O. Oseni & Ibrahim A. Adekunle, 2020. "Relevance of Wagner’s Hypothesis in Achieving Sustainable Development Agenda in Nigeria," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 20/006, African Governance and Development Institute..

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:99/3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Abbie Sleath (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deleiuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.