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Assessing the Casual Relationship between Euro-Area Money and Price in Time-Varying Environment

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen Hall
  • George Hondroyiannis
  • P.A.V.B. Swamy
  • George S. Tavlas

Abstract

The paper provides new evidence on the causal relationship between money and price for the euro area using quarterly data for the period 1980 to 2006, employing two alternative methods of estimation: the vector error correction (VEC) and time-varying coefficient (TVC) estimation techniques. The latter technique has the advantage over the former technique in that it can deal with possible specification biases and spurious relationships that may have arisen from structural changes. The empirical results from the VEC method reveal a bidirectional causal relationship between money and price. Contrary, the results from the TVC technique suggest that money is acting as an exogenous process determining the price level.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen Hall & George Hondroyiannis & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2009. "Assessing the Casual Relationship between Euro-Area Money and Price in Time-Varying Environment," Discussion Papers in Economics 09/17, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    • Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:09/17
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    File URL: https://www.le.ac.uk/economics/research/RePEc/lec/leecon/dp09-17.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jawadi, Fredj & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2013. "Money demand in the euro area, the US and the UK: Assessing the role of nonlinearity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 507-515.
    2. Benchimol, Jonathan & Qureshi, Irfan, 2020. "Time-varying money demand and real balance effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 197-211.
    3. Arslanturk, Yalcin & Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin, 2011. "Time-varying linkages between tourism receipts and economic growth in a small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 664-671, January.
    4. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2022. "Strengthening the second pillar: a greater role for money in the ECB’s strategy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(1), pages 99-114, January.
    5. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Daniel Goyeau & Cornel Oros, 2015. "On the Long Run Money-Prices Relationship in CEE Countries," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Causality; VEC; Time Varying Coefficient Estimation; Euro Area;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

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