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Bretton-Woods Systems, Old and New, and the Rotation of Exchange-Rates Regimes

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen Hall
  • George Hondroyiannis
  • P.A.V.B. Swamy
  • George S. Tavlas

Abstract

A recent contribution to the literature argues that the present international monetary system in many ways operates like the Bretton-Woods system. Asia is the new periphery of the system and pursues an export-led development strategy. The members of the new periphery peg their currencies to the U.S. dollar at undervalued exchange rates and accumulate foreign reserves. In contrast, the old periphery - - consisting of Western Europe, Canada and parts of Latin America - - interacts with the centre with flexible exchange rates; its aggregate current account has been roughly in balance. As under the older system, the United States remains the centre country, pursuing a monetary-policy strategy that overlooks the exchange rate. An implication of this argument is the following asymmetry hypothesis: under both regimes the United States does not take external factors into account in conducting monetary policy while the periphery does take external factors into account. We provide results of a test of the asymmetry hypothesis. Then, we present a new method for decomposition of the business cycle using a time-varying-coefficient technique that allows us to test the relationship between the cycle and macroeconomic policies. We apply this technique to five countries for three sub-periods over the 1959 to 2007 period.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen Hall & George Hondroyiannis & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2009. "Bretton-Woods Systems, Old and New, and the Rotation of Exchange-Rates Regimes," Discussion Papers in Economics 09/15, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    • Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:09/15
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Johnson, Harry G, 1973. "The International Monetary Crisis of 1971," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 46(1), pages 11-23, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Thi Hong Van Hoang & Amine Lahiani & David Heller, 2016. "Is gold a hedge against inflation? New evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Post-Print hal-02012307, HAL.
    2. Dariusz Urban, 2011. "Macroeconomic Considerations and Motives of Sovereign Wealth Funds Activity," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 5(2), June.
    3. Rana, Hafiz Muhammad Usman & O'Connor, Fergal, 2023. "Domestic macroeconomic determinants of precious metals prices in developed and emerging economies: An international analysis of the long and short run," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    4. Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Lahiani, Amine & Heller, David, 2016. "Is gold a hedge against inflation? New evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 54-66.
    5. MĂRGINEAN Silvia Cristina & ORĂȘTEAN Ramona, 2020. "The Challenges Of Reforming The International Monetary System In The Post Covid-19 World," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 15(3), pages 61-73, December.

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      More about this item

      Keywords

      Revived Bretton-Woods System; Asymmetry Hypothesis; Time-Series Decomposition; Time-Varying-Coefficient Estimation;
      All these keywords.

      JEL classification:

      • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
      • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
      • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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