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Financial Shocks, Loan Loss Provisions and Macroeconomic Stability

Author

Listed:
  • William John Tayler
  • Roy Zilberman

Abstract

This paper studies the interactions between loan loss provisions, business cycles and monetary policy in a New Keynesian model featuring a credit cost channel and endogenous credit default risk. We show that an incurred-loss specific provisioning system induces financial accelerator mechanisms, and generates financial, price and macroeconomic instability. Dynamic provisioning regimes, covering for expected losses over the whole business cycle, significantly improve welfare, and furthermore moderate the (otherwise optimal) anti-inflationary stance in the monetary policy rule. Optimal policy in response to financial shocks calls for a combination of macroprudential dynamic provisioning and conventional monetary policy rules, which exclude financial stability targets.

Suggested Citation

  • William John Tayler & Roy Zilberman, 2014. "Financial Shocks, Loan Loss Provisions and Macroeconomic Stability," Working Papers 124138133, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:lan:wpaper:124138133
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    File URL: http://www.lancaster.ac.uk/media/lancaster-university/content-assets/documents/lums/economics/working-papers/TaylerZilberman_LLP_JAN_2018_.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Popoyan, Lilit & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2017. "Taming macroeconomic instability: Monetary and macro-prudential policy interactions in an agent-based model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 117-140.
    2. Francesco Lamperti & Antoine Mandel & Mauro Napoletano & Alessandro Sapio & Andrea Roventini & Tomas Balint & Igor Khorenzhenko, 2017. "Taming macroeconomic instability," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-03399574, HAL.
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5bnglqth5987gaq6dhju3psjn3 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Indrani Manna, 2018. "Can We Still Lean Against the Wind?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 223-259, April.
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5hussro0tc951q0jqpu8quliqu is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5bnglqth5987gaq6dhju3psjn3 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Malgorzata Olszak & Iwona Kowalska & Patrycja Chodnicka-Jaworska & Filip Switala, 2016. "Bank-Specific Determinants Of Sensitivity Of Loan-Loss Provisions To Business Cycle," Faculty of Management Working Paper Series 32016, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management.
    8. Brancaccio, Emiliano & Califano, Andrea & Lopreite, Milena & Moneta, Alessio, 2020. "Nonperforming loans and competing rules of monetary policy: A statistical identification approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 127-136.
    9. Pool, Sebastiaan & de Haan, Leo & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M., 2015. "Loan loss provisioning, bank credit and the real economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 124-136.
    10. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5hussro0tc951q0jqpu8quliqu is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Lilit Popoyan, 2020. "Macroprudential Policy: a Blessing or a Curse?," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 11(1-2).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Basel III - Macroprudential Policy; Dynamic Provisions; Borrowing Cost Channel; Monetary Policy; Welfare;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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