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Robust Estimation and Forecasting of the Capital Asset Pricing Model

Author

Listed:
  • Guorui Bian

    (Department of Statistics, East China Normal University)

  • Michael McAleer

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam, Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands, and Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University)

  • Wing-Keung Wong

    (Department of Economics, Hong Kong Baptist University)

Abstract

In this paper, we develop a modified maximum likelihood (MML) estimator for the multiple linear regression model with underlying student t distribution. We obtain the closed form of the estimators, derive the asymptotic properties, and demonstrate that the MML estimator is more appropriate for estimating the parameters of the Capital Asset Pricing Model by comparing its performance with least squares estimators (LSE) on the monthly returns of US portfolios. The empirical results reveal that the MML estimators are more efficient than LSE in terms of the relative efficiency of one-step-ahead forecast mean square error in small samples.

Suggested Citation

  • Guorui Bian & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2010. "Robust Estimation and Forecasting of the Capital Asset Pricing Model," KIER Working Papers 735, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:kyo:wpaper:735
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    Cited by:

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    3. Kim-Hung Pho & Thi Diem-Chinh Ho & Tuan-Kiet Tran & Wing-Keung Wong, 2019. "Moment Generating Function, Expectation And Variance Of Ubiquitous Distributions With Applications In Decision Sciences: A Review," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 23(2), pages 65-150, June.
    4. Chang, C-L. & McAleer, M.J. & Wong, W.-K., 2018. "Management Information, Decision Sciences, and Financial Economics : a connection," Econometric Institute Research Papers 2018-004/III, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
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    6. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2018. "Decision Sciences, Economics, Finance, Business, Computing, And Big Data: Connections," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 22(1), pages 36-94, December.
    7. Yani Quarta Mondiana & Henny Pramoedyo & Atiek Iriany & Marjono, 2024. "Exploring Geographical Variability in Sugarcane Yields: A Geographically Weighted Panel Regression Approach with MM Estimation," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 28(2), pages 35-65, June.
    8. Kim-Hung Pho & Tuan-Kiet Tran & Thi Diem-Chinh Ho & Wing-Keung Wong, 2019. "Optimal Solution Techniques in Decision Sciences A Review," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 23(1), pages 114-161, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Maximum likelihood estimators; Modified maximum likelihood estimators; Student t family; Capital asset pricing model; Robustness.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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