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Middle-Income Traps and Complexity in Economic Development

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  • Takao Asano

    (Okayama University)

  • Akihisa Shibata

    (Kyoto University)

  • Masanori Yokoo

    (Okayama University)

Abstract

In this paper, we develop a simple growth model that exhibits a wide variety of economic development patterns. In particular, our numerical simulations demonstrate that for a given set of parameter values, various types of development patterns such as the middle-income trap, the poverty trap, periodic or chaotic fluctuations, and high-income paths, can coexist, and which pattern is realized depends only on the initial value of capital. For another set of parameter values, we show that due to the pinball effect, an economy starting at a middle-income level can take off to the high-income state or get caught in the poverty trap in a seemingly random way after undergoing transient chaotic motions. Our results can explain observed complicated patterns of economic development in a unified manner.

Suggested Citation

  • Takao Asano & Akihisa Shibata & Masanori Yokoo, 2020. "Middle-Income Traps and Complexity in Economic Development," KIER Working Papers 1049, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:kyo:wpaper:1049
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    Cited by:

    1. Takao Asano & Akihisa Shibata & Masanori Yokoo, 2024. "Technology choice, externalities in production, and a chaotic middle-income trap," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 29-56, January.
    2. Takao Asano & Akihisa Shibata & Masanori Yokoo, 2021. "Polarization and Permanent Fluctuations: Quasi-Periodic Motions in a Two-Class OLG Model (Revised version with a new title "Quasi-Periodic Motions in a Polarized Overlapping Generations Model wit," KIER Working Papers 1063, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    3. Takao Asano & Akihisa Shibata & Masanori Yokoo, 2021. "Quasi-Periodic Motions in a Polarized Overlapping Generations Model with Technology Choice," KIER Working Papers 1070, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.

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