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Multiple Equilibria and the Credibility of the Brazilian 'Crawling-Peg', 1995-1998

Author

Listed:
  • Hans Dewachter

    (K.U.Leuven and Erasmus University of Rotterdam)

  • Marco Lyrio

    (K.U.Leuven, C.E.S., International Economics)

Abstract

This paper studies the relationship between the probability of devaluation of the Brazilian real and the fundamentals of the economy for the period 1995-1998. We use a model of a fixed exchange rate system that allows for multiple equilibria and, therefore, makes possible the identification of self-fulfilling speculation. The devaluation probability is computed using the "drift adjustment method". The model performs satisfactorily in tracking monthly devaluation expectations and presents some important advantages over a simple linear regression of macroeconomic variables on the devaluation probability. We do not find evidence that self-fulfilling speculation was at work in the period preceding the Brazilian currency crisis of January 1999. This suggests that the breakdown of the Brazilian managed exchange rate system was due to the deterioration of the fundamentals of the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans Dewachter & Marco Lyrio, 1999. "Multiple Equilibria and the Credibility of the Brazilian 'Crawling-Peg', 1995-1998," International Economics Working Papers Series ces9919, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën, International Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:kul:kulwps:ces9919
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcin Sasin, 2002. "Predicting Currency Crises, the Ultimate Significance of Macroeconomic Fundamentals in Linear Specifications with Nonlinear Extensions," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0224, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    currency crisis; self-fulfilling speculation; multiple equilibria; Brazilian exchange rate system;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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