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The Real Exchange Rate, Foreign Aid and Macroeconomic Transmission Mechanisms in Tanzania and Ghana

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  • Katarina Juselius

    (Department of Economics, Copenhagen University)

  • Abdulaziz Reshid

    (Linnaeus University)

  • Finn Tarp

    (Department of Economics, Copenhagen University)

Abstract

A recent study of 36 Sub Saharan African countries found a positive impact of aid in the absolute majority of these countries. However, for Tanzania and Ghana, two major aid recipients, aid did not seem to have been equally beneficial. This paper singles out these two countries for a more detailed empirical investigation. The focus is now on the effect of aid when allowing external and nominal factors to play a role in the macroeconomic transmission mechanism. We conclude that aid played a significantly positive - but very different - role in the two countries. Due in part to generous aid inflows Tanzania experienced positive investment and GDP growth from the late 1960s to 2007. But, until the mid-1980s, the impact of aid on growth was well below its potential as the large inflows of aid facilitated a serious over-appreciation of the real exchange rate. In Ghana, declining aid in the 1970s was associated with lacking growth while the reactivation of aid flows in the 1980s supported an economic rebound. When monetary and external factors are properly accounted for, we find that aid has been pivotal to growth in both real GDP and investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Katarina Juselius & Abdulaziz Reshid & Finn Tarp, 2014. "The Real Exchange Rate, Foreign Aid and Macroeconomic Transmission Mechanisms in Tanzania and Ghana," Discussion Papers 14-02, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:1402
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    Cited by:

    1. Ouyang, Yusi & Shimeles, Abebe & Thorbecke, Erik, 2019. "Revisiting cross-country poverty convergence in the developing world with a special focus on Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 13-28.
    2. Oliver Morrissey & Lionel Roger & Lars Spreng, 2019. "Aid and exchange rates in sub-Saharan Africa: No more Dutch Disease?," Discussion Papers 2019-07, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    3. Simplice A. Asongu & Hillary C. Ezeaku, 2020. "Aid Grants vs. Technical Cooperation Grants: Implications for Inclusive Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1984-2018," Research Africa Network Working Papers 20/091, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    4. Katarina Juselius, 2021. "Searching for a Theory That Fits the Data: A Personal Research Odyssey," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, February.
    5. Dervis Kirikkaleli & Ibrahim Adeshola & Tomiwa Sunday Adebayo & Abraham Ayobamiji Awosusi, 2021. "Do foreign aid triggers economic growth in Chad? A time series analysis," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-17, December.
    6. Channing Arndt & Sam Jones & Finn Tarp, 2016. "What Is the Aggregate Economic Rate of Return to Foreign Aid?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 30(3), pages 446-474.
    7. Roger, Lionel, 2019. "A replication of "The long-run impact of foreign aid in 36 African countries: Insights from multivariate time series analysis" (Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2014)," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 13, pages 1-53.
    8. Channing Arndt & Sam Jones & Finn Tarp, 2016. "What Is the Aggregate Economic Rate of Return to Foreign Aid?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 30(3), pages 446-474.
    9. Lionel Roger, 2015. "Foreign Aid, Poor Data, and the Fragility of Macroeconomic Inference," Discussion Papers 2015-06, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    10. Haldar, Anasuya & Sethi, Narayan, 2022. "Effect of sectoral foreign aid allocation on growth and structural transformation in sub-Saharan Africa—Analysing the roles of institutional quality and human capital," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1010-1026.
    11. Sethi, Narayan & Bhujabal, Padmaja & Das, Aurolipsa & Sucharita, Sanhita, 2019. "Foreign aid and growth nexus: Empirical evidence from India and Sri Lanka," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-12.

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