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Nowcasting Private Consumption with TV Sentiment

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  • Matthias W. Uhl

Abstract

We perform principal components analyses of the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment and TV sentiment in order to gain information on their structure and information content. By introducing the new sentiment variable TV sentiment, gathered from sentiment from statements from over 10,000 TV news broadcasts in the United States, we nd that TV sentiment adds great value in nowcasting private consumption. We further nd that TV sentiment performs markedly better than the Index of Consumer Sentiment, suggesting that using sentiment from TV news has more explanatory power than survey-based sentiment.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthias W. Uhl, 2011. "Nowcasting Private Consumption with TV Sentiment," KOF Working papers 11-293, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    • Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:11-293
    DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-006804308
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    Cited by:

    1. Dirk Ulbricht & Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Tobias Thomas, 2017. "Do Media Data Help to Predict German Industrial Production?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 483-496, August.
    2. David Iselin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2013. "Using Newspapers for Tracking the Business Cycle," KOF Working papers 13-337, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    3. David Iselin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2013. "Mit Zeitungen Konjunkturprognosen erstellen: Eine Vergleichsstudie für die Schweiz und Deutschland," KOF Analysen, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, vol. 7(3), pages 104-117, September.

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