IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/kob/dpaper/dp2022-16.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Central Bank Economic Confidence and the Macroeconomy

Author

Listed:
  • Masahiko Shibamoto

    (Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration and Center for Computational Social Science, Kobe University, JAPAN)

  • Kazuhiro Seki

    (Faculty of Intelligence and Informatics, Konan University, JAPAN)

  • Takashi Kamihigashi

    (Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration and Center for Computational Social Science, Kobe University, JAPAN)

Abstract

Challenges for empirical research on the role of central bank communication in the macroeconomy include quantitatively characterizing the content of information dissemination by central banks in a way that is comparable and easily interpretable over time, and evaluating the causal relationship between information dissemination and the macroeconomy. This paper quantifies textual data on central bank offcials' statements as characterized by economic cofidence, and uses econometric methodology to examine the dynamic causal effects of measured central bank economic confidence on the macroeconomy. We provide quantitative evidence that central bank information dissemination has two distinct qualities, its economic outlook and sentiment, which have dfferent effects on the macroeconomy. While authorities can be expected to enhance policy effectiveness by communicating their economic outlook and policy belief to the public, the quantitative impact of changed belief on the macroeconomy is not as large as that of an updated economic outlook.

Suggested Citation

  • Masahiko Shibamoto & Kazuhiro Seki & Takashi Kamihigashi, 2022. "Central Bank Economic Confidence and the Macroeconomy," Discussion Paper Series DP2022-16, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    • Handle: RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2022-16
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank communication; Economic confidence; Macroeconomy; Sentiment analysis; Vector autoregressive model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2022-16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Office of Promoting Research Collaboration, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rikobjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.