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Eclipse: How Darkness Shapes Violence in Africa

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  • Kikuta,Kyosuke

Abstract

Although darkness has long been associated with insecurity, the link remains speculative. I fill the gap by examining the effect of solar eclipses on political violence. Expanding on psychological theories, I hypothesize that eclipse-induced darkness evokes fear, which in turn is misattributed to outgroups, thereby triggering violence. I contrast this argument with a tactical explanation, suggesting that darkness allows insurgents to secretly kill civilians. I test these hypotheses by exploiting exogenous variations in the dates and locations of solar eclipses for 1997–2022 in Africa. The analysis indicates a spike in violence on the days of solar eclipses. To explore the mechanisms, I examine the initiators and original texts of violent events, weather conditions, ethnic folklore, and individual-level surveys. The analyses support the tactical rather than psychological explanation. These findings warn against assuming that “irrational” or “superstitious” African people overreacted to eclipses; insurgents rationally used darkness for their tactical purposes.

Suggested Citation

  • Kikuta,Kyosuke, 2024. "Eclipse: How Darkness Shapes Violence in Africa," IDE Discussion Papers 941, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
  • Handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper941
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    File URL: https://ir.ide.go.jp/record/2001094/files/IDP000941_001.pdf
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