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Simulating the decoupling world under Russia's invasion of Ukraine: an application of IDE-GSM

Author

Listed:
  • Kumagai,Satoru
  • Hayakawa,Kazunobu
  • Isono,Ikumo
  • Gokan,Toshitaka
  • Keola,Souknilanh
  • Tsubota,Kenmei
  • Kubo,Hiroya

Abstract

The world appears to be divided into three blocs: the Chinese–Russian bloc, the Western alliance, and the rest of the world that remains neutral in the conflict between t he former camps. This study estimates the economic impacts of “decoupling” s cenarios on each country and region using a computable general equilibrium (CGE)-t ype simulation model called the geographical simulation model developed by the I nstitute of Developing Economies (IDE-GSM). Simulation results indicate that 1) the decoupling of Russia will not have a significant impact on the global economy, except i n the mining sector, and 2) if China joins the Russian camp, the impact will be s ignificant on the world economy, especially for Asian countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Kumagai,Satoru & Hayakawa,Kazunobu & Isono,Ikumo & Gokan,Toshitaka & Keola,Souknilanh & Tsubota,Kenmei & Kubo,Hiroya, 2023. "Simulating the decoupling world under Russia's invasion of Ukraine: an application of IDE-GSM," IDE Discussion Papers 874, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    • Handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper874
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
    2. Keith Head & Thierry Mayer, 2000. "Non-Europe: The magnitude and causes of market fragmentation in the EU," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 136(2), pages 284-314, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. JINJI Naoto & OZAWA Shunya, 2024. "Impact of Technological Decoupling between the United States and China on Trade and Welfare," Discussion papers 24041, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    2. Ikumo Isono & Satoru Kumagai, 2023. "ASEAN's Role in the Threat of Global Economic Decoupling: Implications from Geographical Simulation Analysis," Working Papers PB-2022-10, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Decoupling of the world|Simulation analysis|IDE-GSM;

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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