IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/jet/dpaper/dpaper874.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Simulating the decoupling world under Russia's invasion of Ukraine: an application of IDE-GSM

Author

Listed:
  • Kumagai,Satoru
  • Hayakawa,Kazunobu
  • Isono,Ikumo
  • Gokan,Toshitaka
  • Keola,Souknilanh
  • Tsubota,Kenmei
  • Kubo,Hiroya

Abstract

The world appears to be divided into three blocs: the Chinese–Russian bloc, the Western alliance, and the rest of the world that remains neutral in the conflict between t he former camps. This study estimates the economic impacts of “decoupling” s cenarios on each country and region using a computable general equilibrium (CGE)-t ype simulation model called the geographical simulation model developed by the I nstitute of Developing Economies (IDE-GSM). Simulation results indicate that 1) the decoupling of Russia will not have a significant impact on the global economy, except i n the mining sector, and 2) if China joins the Russian camp, the impact will be s ignificant on the world economy, especially for Asian countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Kumagai,Satoru & Hayakawa,Kazunobu & Isono,Ikumo & Gokan,Toshitaka & Keola,Souknilanh & Tsubota,Kenmei & Kubo,Hiroya, 2023. "Simulating the decoupling world under Russia's invasion of Ukraine: an application of IDE-GSM," IDE Discussion Papers 874, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    • Handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper874
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ir.ide.go.jp/?action=repository_action_common_download&item_id=53604&item_no=1&attribute_id=22&file_no=1
    File Function: First version, 2022
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
    2. Keith Head & Thierry Mayer, 2000. "Non-Europe: The magnitude and causes of market fragmentation in the EU," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 136(2), pages 284-314, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. JINJI Naoto & OZAWA Shunya, 2024. "Impact of Technological Decoupling between the United States and China on Trade and Welfare," Discussion papers 24041, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    2. Ikumo Isono & Satoru Kumagai, 2023. "ASEAN's Role in the Threat of Global Economic Decoupling: Implications from Geographical Simulation Analysis," Working Papers PB-2022-10, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Keith Head & Thierry Mayer, 2002. "Effet frontière, intégration économique et “Forteresse Europe”," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(1), pages 71-92.
    2. Kristian Behrens, 2005. "Choix de localisation et structure du commerce intra-branche," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 56(4), pages 965-982.
    3. José De Sousa & Anne-Célia Disdier, 2006. "La qualité du cadre juridique constitue-t-elle une barrière au commerce ?. Application aux économies en transition," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 57(1), pages 135-149.
    4. Jens Wrona, 2018. "Border Effects Without Borders: What Divides Japan's Internal Trade?," CESifo Working Paper Series 7056, CESifo.
    5. Olper, Alessandro & Curzi, Daniele & Frisio, Dario Gianfranco & Raimondi, Valentina, 2012. "Home Bias in Consumption: A Comparison between Wine and Beer," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 61(4).
    6. Zohra Bouamra & Vincent Chatellier & Angela Cheptea & K Hervé Dakpo & Yann Desjeux & Sabine Duvaleix-Treguer & Carl Gaigné & Marilyne Huchet & Philippe Jeanneaux & Karine Latouche & Laure Latruffe, 2018. "La compétitivité des filières animales françaises," Working Papers hal-02439979, HAL.
    7. Jesús López-Rodríguez & J. Andrés Faíña, 2000. "Human Capital Accumulation and Geography: Empirical Evidence in the European Union," Regional and Urban Modeling 283600060, EcoMod.
    8. Ottaviano, Gianmarco & Thisse, Jacques-Francois, 2004. "Agglomeration and economic geography," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 58, pages 2563-2608, Elsevier.
    9. Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano, 2004. "Footloose capital, market access and the geography of regional state aid," Chapters, in: Jean-Louis Mucchielli & Thierry Mayer (ed.), Multinational Firms’ Location and the New Economic Geography, chapter 8, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Barbara Annicchiarico & Federica Orioli & Federico Trionfetti, 2012. "National oligopolies and economic geography," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 48(1), pages 71-99, February.
    11. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2004. "The empirics of agglomeration and trade," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 59, pages 2609-2669, Elsevier.
    12. Gokan,Toshitaka & Kumagai,Satoru & Hayakawa,Kazunobu & Tsubota,Kenmei & Isono,Ikumo & Keola,Souknilanh & Kubo,Hiroya, 2024. "Economic Impacts of the blockage of the Suez Canal: an Analysis by IDE-GSM," IDE Discussion Papers 919, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    13. Hélène Erkel‐Rousse & Daniel Mirza, 2002. "Import price elasticities: reconsidering the evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(2), pages 282-306, May.
    14. Alessandro Olper & Valentina Raimondi, 2008. "Explaining National Border Effects in the QUAD Food Trade," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(3), pages 436-462, September.
    15. Alessandro Olper & Valentina Raimondi, 2008. "Market Access Asymmetry in Food Trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 144(3), pages 509-537, October.
    16. Poncet, Sandra, 2003. "Measuring Chinese domestic and international integration," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-21.
    17. Henk Kox & Arjan Lejour, 2005. "Regulatory heterogeneity as obstacle for international services trade," CPB Discussion Paper 49, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    18. Olper, Alessandro & Curzi, Daniele & Frisio, Dario Gianfranco & Raimondi, Valentina, 2012. "Home Bias in Consumption: A Comparison between Wine and Beer," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 61(04), pages 1-12, November.
    19. Behrens, Kristian, 2005. "How endogenous asymmetries in interregional market access trigger regional divergence," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 471-492, September.
    20. Cecile Batisse & Sandra Poncet, 2004. "Protectionism and Industry Location in Chinese Provinces," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 133-154.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Decoupling of the world|Simulation analysis|IDE-GSM;

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper874. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michitaka Imamitsu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/idegvjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.