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Retrospective Voting in Turkey: Macro and Micro Perspectives

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  • Hazama, Yasushi

Abstract

Recent studies have shown that party systems in emerging democracies do not always adequately reflect the various cleavages of society. Under such circumstances, retrospective voting may play a more important role than cleavage voting in determining electoral outcomes. For studies of retrospective voting, the choice between macro and micro level as the independent variable is a major methodological issue. Using individual-level data on Turkey, this paper addresses two major questions: (1) Are voters' decisions based on household economic conditions or national economic conditions? Do sociopolitical conditions also count? (2) Does the future evaluation of the economy affect voting decisions apart from past evaluation? Logit models are used in this research to answer these questions.

Suggested Citation

  • Hazama, Yasushi, 2006. "Retrospective Voting in Turkey: Macro and Micro Perspectives," IDE Discussion Papers 46, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    • Handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper46
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    File URL: https://ir.ide.go.jp/?action=repository_action_common_download&item_id=38120&item_no=1&attribute_id=22&file_no=1
    File Function: First version, 2006
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    Cited by:

    1. Toros, Emre, 2012. "Forecasting Turkish local elections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 813-821.
    2. Toros, Emre, 2011. "Forecasting elections in Turkey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1248-1258, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Retrospective voting; Elections; Turkey; 選挙; トルコ;
    All these keywords.

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