IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/jet/dpaper/dpaper156.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade: The Implication for Production Networks in East Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Hayakawa, Kazunobu
  • Kimura, Fukunari

Abstract

This paper is an empirical investigation of the relationship between exchange rate volatility and international trade, focusing on East Asia. It finds that intra-East Asian trade is discouraged by exchange rate volatility more seriously than trade in other regions because intermediate goods trade in production networks, which is quite sensitive to exchange rate volatility compared with other types of trade, occupies a significant fraction of trade. In addition, this negative effect of volatility is mainly induced by the unanticipated volatility and has an even greater impact than that of tariffs.

Suggested Citation

  • Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Kimura, Fukunari, 2008. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade: The Implication for Production Networks in East Asia," IDE Discussion Papers 156, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    • Handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper156
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ir.ide.go.jp/?action=repository_action_common_download&item_id=38011&item_no=1&attribute_id=22&file_no=1
    File Function: First version, 2008
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Peter B. Clark & Shang-Jin Wei & Ms. Natalia T. Tamirisa & Mr. Azim M Sadikov & Mr. Li Zeng, 2004. "A New Look at Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows," IMF Occasional Papers 2004/009, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Mitsuyo Ando & Fukunari Kimura, 2005. "The Formation of International Production and Distribution Networks in East Asia," NBER Chapters, in: International Trade in East Asia, pages 177-216, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ito, Takatoshi & Rose, Andrew K. (ed.), 2005. "International Trade in East Asia," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226378961, July.
    4. Michael D. McKenzie, 1999. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February.
    5. Kozo Kiyota & Shujiro Urata, 2004. "Exchange Rate, Exchange Rate Volatility and Foreign Direct Investment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(10), pages 1501-1536, November.
    6. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    7. Takatoshi Ito & Andrew K. Rose, 2005. "International Trade in East Asia," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_05-1, June.
    8. ITO Takatoshi & KOIBUCHI Satoshi & SASAKI Yuri & SATO Kiyotaka & SHIMIZU Junko & HAYAKAWA Kazunobu & YOSHIMI Taiyo, 2008. "Currency Invoicing and Foreign Exchange Risk Management: A Case Study of Japanese Firms (Japanese)," Discussion Papers (Japanese) 08009, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Masahiro Kawai & Shinji Takagi, 2012. "A Proposal for Exchange Rate Policy Coordination in East Asia," Chapters, in: Masahiro Kawai & Peter J. Morgan & Shinji Takagi (ed.), Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Masahiro Kawai & Peter J. Morgan & Shinji Takagi (ed.), 2012. "Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14414.
    3. Kiki Verico & Yeremia Natanael, 2018. "Let’s talk about the Free Trade Agreement (FTA): The five ASEAN members highlighting Indonesia," LPEM FEBUI Working Papers 201823, LPEM, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, revised Jul 2018.
    4. Verico, Kiki & Natanael, Yeremia, 2018. "Let’s talk about the Free Trade Agreement (FTA): The five ASEAN members highlighting Indonesia," MPRA Paper 87947, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Imam Mukhlis, 2010. "Impact of volatility exchange rates on Indonesian electronic imports from intra and extra ASEAN," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 2(1), pages 61-78, April.
    6. Abdul Jalil Khan & Parvez Azim & Shabib Haider Syed, 2014. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade: A Panel Study on Pakistan’s Trading Partners," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 31-66, Jan-June.
    7. Ulrich Volz, 2014. "RMB Internationalisation and Currency Cooperation in East Asia," Financial and Monetary Policy Studies, in: Frank Rövekamp & Hanns Günther Hilpert (ed.), Currency Cooperation in East Asia, edition 127, pages 57-81, Springer.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Kimura, Fukunari, 2009. "The effect of exchange rate volatility on international trade in East Asia," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 395-406, December.
    2. Richard E. Baldwin, 2011. "Multilateralising Regionalism: Spaghetti Bowls as Building Blocks on the Path to Global Free Trade," Chapters, in: Miroslav N. Jovanović (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume I, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Mitsuyo Ando & Sven W. Arndt & Fukunari Kimura, 2006. "Production Networks in East Asia : Strategic Behavior by Japanese and U.S. firms," Microeconomics Working Papers 21886, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    4. ANDO Mitsuyo & IRIYAMA Akie, 2009. "International Production Networks and Export/Import Responsiveness to Exchange Rates: The case of Japanese manufacturing firms," Discussion papers 09049, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    5. ANDO Mitsuyo & KIMURA Fukunari, 2017. "Job Creation and Destruction at the Levels of Intra-firm Sections, Firms, and Industries in Globalization: The case of Japanese manufacturing firms," Discussion papers 17100, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    6. Richard Pomfret & Uwe Kaufmann & Christopher Findlay, 2010. "Are Preferential Tariffs Utilized? Evidence from Australian Imports, 2000-9," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2010-13, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    7. Obashi, Ayako, 2010. "Stability of production networks in East Asia: Duration and survival of trade," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 21-30, January.
    8. Chin Hee Hahn & Yong-Seok Choi, 2010. "China’s Rise and Production and Investment Growth in Korean Manufacturing Industries: Channels and the Effects," Chapters, in: Takatoshi Ito & Chin Hee Hahn (ed.), The Rise of China and Structural Changes in Korea and Asia, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Hahn Chin Hee, 2012. "Learning-by-Exporting, Introduction of New Products, and Product Rationalization: Evidence from Korean Manufacturing," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-37, May.
    10. Lord, Montague & Clarke, Julian & Record, Richard & Artuso, Fabio, 2014. "Trading Costs in East Asia’s Global Value Chains," MPRA Paper 61061, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Baldwin, Richard & Robert-Nicoud, Frédéric, 2007. "Offshoring: General Equilibrium Effects on Wages, Production and Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 6218, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Keiko Ito & Kyoji Fukao, 2010. "Determinants of the Profitability of Japanese Manufacturing Affiliates in China and Other Regions: Does Localisation of Procurement, Sales and Management Matter?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(12), pages 1639-1671, December.
    13. Capannelli, Giovanni, 2011. "Institutions for Economic and Financial Integration in Asia: Trends and Prospects," ADBI Working Papers 308, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    14. Nobuaki Yamashita, 2010. "International Fragmentation of Production," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13615.
    15. Mitsuyo ANDO, 2010. "Machinery Trade in East Asia, and the Global Financial Crisis," Working Papers DP-2010-10, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    16. Hahn, Chin Hee & Choi, Yong-Seok, 2021. "Learning-to-export Effect as a Response to Export Opportunities: Micro-evidence from Korean Manufacturing," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 43(4), pages 1-21.
    17. Kimura, Fukunari & Chang, Mateus Silva, 2017. "Industrialization and poverty reduction in East Asia: Internal labor movements matter," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 23-37.
    18. Kent Matthews, 2014. "Cost Inefficiency in the Pakistan Banking Sector 2002-2009," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 10, pages 1-20.
    19. Ayako Obashi & Fukunari Kimura, 2021. "New Developments in International Production Networks: Impact of Digital Technologies," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 115-141, June.
    20. Richard E. Baldwin, 2008. "Managing The Noodle Bowl: The Fragility Of East Asian Regionalism," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 53(03), pages 449-478.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate volatility; Trade; East Asia; International trade; Foreign exchange; 為替変動; 貿易; 東アジア; 外国為替;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • N75 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Asia including Middle East

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper156. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michitaka Imamitsu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/idegvjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.