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Zukünftige Fachkräfteengpässe in Deutschland?

Author

Listed:
  • Dräger, Vanessa

    (University of Cologne)

Abstract

Gefährdet der demographische Wandel den ökonomischen Wohlstand in Deutschland oder reicht das Arbeitsvolumenangebot aus, um den Arbeitsvolumenbedarf zu decken? In diesem Beitrag wird mittels Wachstumszerlegung der Bedarf für ein fortgeschriebenes BIP-pro-Kopf ermittelt. Dieser wird dem Angebot für unterschiedliche Szenarien bspw. hinsichtlich Arbeitszeiten unter der Annahme gegenübergestellt, dass keine demographisch bedingte Lohnanpassung stattfindet. Der demographische Wandel kann zu einer wirtschaftlichen Herausforderung werden, wenn positive Trends in Erwerbspersonenquoten, Qualifikationsniveau und Migrationssaldo ins Stocken geraten und negative Trends in der jährlichen Arbeitszeit fortgesetzt werden. Es ergeben sich dann insbesondere Engpässe bei Personen mit einem Meistertitel, Techniker- oder Fachschulabschluss. Insgesamt scheinen inländische Ressourcen auf lange Sicht an Grenzen zu stoßen, so dass der Migration von Fachkräften eine wachsende Bedeutung zukommt.

Suggested Citation

  • Dräger, Vanessa, 2014. "Zukünftige Fachkräfteengpässe in Deutschland?," IZA Discussion Papers 8434, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp8434
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    demography; labor demand; labor supply; trends; skill shortages;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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