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Forecasting Errors: Yet More Problems for Identification?

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  • Contini, Bruno

    (Collegio Carlo Alberto)

Abstract

Forecasting errors pose a serious problem of identification, often neglected in empirical applications. Any attempt of estimating choice models under uncertainty may lead to severely biased results in the presence of forecasting errors even when individual expectations on future events are observed together with the standard outcome variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Contini, Bruno, 2009. "Forecasting Errors: Yet More Problems for Identification?," IZA Discussion Papers 4035, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp4035
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Manski, Charles F, 1999. "Analysis of Choice Expectations in Incomplete Scenarios," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 19(1-3), pages 49-66, December.
    2. Lusardi, Annamaria & Mitchell, Olivia S., 2007. "Baby Boomer retirement security: The roles of planning, financial literacy, and housing wealth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 205-224, January.
    3. Christelis, Dimitris & Jappelli, Tullio & Padula, Mario, 2010. "Cognitive abilities and portfolio choice," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 18-38, January.
    4. Contini, Bruno & Morini, Matteo, 2007. "Testing Bounded Rationality against Full Rationality in Job Changing Behavior," IZA Discussion Papers 3148, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Luigi Guiso & Giuseppe Parigi, 1999. "Investment and Demand Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(1), pages 185-227.
    6. Bruno Contini, 1966. "A Note on Arrow's Postulates for a Social Welfare Function," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(3), pages 278-278.
    7. Shlomo Benartzi & Richard Thaler, 2007. "Heuristics and Biases in Retirement Savings Behavior," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 81-104, Summer.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    identification; forecasting errors; subjective probabilities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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