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Pro-Trump Vote and US-Mexico Migration

Author

Listed:
  • Caballero, Maria Esther

    (Carnegie Mellon University)

  • Ippedico, Giuseppe

    (University of Nottingham)

  • Peri, Giovanni

    (University of California, Davis)

Abstract

We study how the US presidential election of 2016 affected the subsequent inflow of Mexican-born immigrants. We use the "Matricula Consular de Alta Seguridad" data to construct proxies for annual inflows and internal movements of Mexican-born individuals, including undocumented immigrants, across US commuting zones. We find that a 10-percentage point increase in the Republican vote share in a commuting zone reduced inflows by 1.8 percent after the 2016 Trump election. The internal relocation of established Mexican immigrants primarily explains this reduction, though inflows of new immigrants decreased as well.

Suggested Citation

  • Caballero, Maria Esther & Ippedico, Giuseppe & Peri, Giovanni, 2025. "Pro-Trump Vote and US-Mexico Migration," IZA Discussion Papers 17787, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17787
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    political shocks; networks; migration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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