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Using Tax Kinks to Estimate the Marginal Propensity to Consume

Author

Listed:
  • Gillitzer, Christian

    (University of Sydney)

  • Landersø, Rasmus

    (Rockwool Foundation Research Unit)

  • Skov, Peer Ebbesen

    (Auckland University of Technology)

  • Søgaard, Jakob Egholt

    (University of Copenhagen)

Abstract

We show how tax kinks can be used to estimate the marginal propensity to consume (MPC). Tax kinks create discrete changes in the relationship between taxable income and disposable income, which – under a set of testable assumptions – enables causal identification of the spending response to changes in disposable income. We apply our new approach using administrative data from Denmark. Using a regression kink design (RKD), we estimate a MPC of 0.6 (s.e. 0.1) for taxpayers at the top tax kink. We show theoretically the conditions under which tax kinks provide variation in transitory or permanent income and deduce that the RKD exploits predominately transitory variation in income. Our implementation addresses threats to the research design from manipulation of taxable income through labor supply and other behavioral responses. Our findings inform the targeting of fiscal stimulus and social insurance programs to high income earners.

Suggested Citation

  • Gillitzer, Christian & Landersø, Rasmus & Skov, Peer Ebbesen & Søgaard, Jakob Egholt, 2025. "Using Tax Kinks to Estimate the Marginal Propensity to Consume," IZA Discussion Papers 17766, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17766
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    marginal propensity to consume; tax kinks; regression-kink-design;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies

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