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A Bad Break-up? Assessing the Effects of the 2016 Brexit Referendum on Migration

Author

Listed:
  • Clifton-Sprigg, Joanna

    (University of Bath)

  • Homburg, Ines

    (University of Antwerp)

  • James, Jonathan

    (University of Bath)

  • Vujic, Suncica

    (University of Antwerp)

Abstract

By voting to leave the European Union (EU) in 2016, the United Kingdom (UK) set off a long period of uncertainty and signalled its support for the Leave campaigns, which centred around restricting migration. This paper researches how this decision affected EU-UK migration patterns. We exploit the Brexit referendum as a natural experiment and employ a (synthetic) difference-in-differences estimator to compare EU migration (treated) to non-EU migration (untreated) in the UK. We find a significant decrease in the inflow of EU migrants, although the reduction seems too small to have any impact on the migrant stock. We further find a significant persistent rise in British citizenship applications and grants. Our results reveal that the referendum made the UK a less attractive destination and that the EU migrants already in the UK were encouraged to obtain British citizenship. The Brexit-induced policy uncertainty was the key driver affecting migrants' decision-making.

Suggested Citation

  • Clifton-Sprigg, Joanna & Homburg, Ines & James, Jonathan & Vujic, Suncica, 2023. "A Bad Break-up? Assessing the Effects of the 2016 Brexit Referendum on Migration," IZA Discussion Papers 16468, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16468
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brexit referendum; international migration; European Union; uncertainty; anti-immigration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • J48 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Particular Labor Markets; Public Policy

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