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Noncitizen Coverage and Its Effects on U.S. Population Statistics

Author

Listed:
  • Brown, J. David

    (U.S. Census Bureau)

  • Heggeness, Misty L.

    (U.S. Census Bureau)

  • Murray-Close, Marta

    (US Census Bureau)

Abstract

We produce 2020 population estimates using 31 administrative record (AR) sources. Our AR census national population estimate is 1.8% greater than the 2020 Demographic Analysis high estimate, 3.0% more than the 2020 Census count, and 3.6% higher than the vintage-2020 Population Estimates Program estimate. Inclusion of more noncitizens, especially those with unknown legal status, can explain the higher AR census estimate. About 19.8% of AR census noncitizens have addresses that cannot be linked to an address in the 2020 Census collection universe, compared to 5.7% of citizens, raising the possibility that the 2020 Census did not collect data for a significant fraction of noncitizens. We show differences in estimates by age, sex, Hispanic origin, geography, and socioeconomic characteristics symptomatic of the differences in noncitizen coverage.

Suggested Citation

  • Brown, J. David & Heggeness, Misty L. & Murray-Close, Marta, 2023. "Noncitizen Coverage and Its Effects on U.S. Population Statistics," IZA Discussion Papers 16391, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16391
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    Keywords

    administrative records; population estimates; immigration; noncitizen coverage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination

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