Belarus on the EU borders - the impact of enlargement on trade and cross-border cooperation

Fears among exporters in Belarus about the aftermath of EU enlargement have been exaggerated. Analysis shows that the changes in trade regime generally favour exports to the EU 25. Average tariffs have decreased. New standards have not become a severe obstacle. Antidumping duties have not been applied automatically and remain a matter for negotiation. In any case, the ten newcomer states absorb a relatively small share of Belarus’s exports, so that the enlargement will not have a tangible impact on the economy. The introduction of visas by Poland has not yet drawn a new dividing line in Europe, but cross-border mobility will decrease if Poland applies stringent visa procedures on joining the Schengen area. In the longer term, enlargement will bring other benefits, such as improved border infrastructure, which will stimulate transit-trade flows between the EU and the Russian Federation. Western regions of Belarus may also gain by spillover from Structural Fund allocations in north-east Poland. Opportunities for increased cross-border cooperation are a great benefit offered by EU enlargement, but usually disregarded by Belarus officials. However, cross-border cooperation with western neighbours is currently snarled by confrontation with the EU, an eastward-looking foreign and economic policy, and strong centralization of power. Participation by border regions of Belarus in Euro-regions remains nominal. However, it is well understood both in the EU and in Minsk that cross-border cooperation may become the only way forward in relations between the two sides. Implementation of cross-border projects can engage regional and local elites in EU affairs. The New Neighbourhood Programmes offer financial resources for cross-border projects, in which four out of six Belarus regions can participate. Let us hope the authorities in Belarus do not impede such projects, so that society has a chance to come closer to the European Union.