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WP 14 Revisions in official data and forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Cecilia Frale
  • Valentina Raponi

Abstract

This paper deals with the topic of revision of data with the aim of investigating whether consecutive releases of macroeconomic series published by statistical agencies contain useful information for economic analysis and forecasting. The rationality of the re-visions process is tested considering the complete history of data and an empirical application to show the usefulness of revisions for improving the precision of forecasting model is proposed. The results for Italian GDP growth show that embedding the revision process in a dynamic factor model helps to reduce the forecast error.

Suggested Citation

  • Cecilia Frale & Valentina Raponi, 2012. "WP 14 Revisions in official data and forecasting," Working Papers 14, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:itt:wpaper:2012-14
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    File URL: http://www.dt.tesoro.it/export/sites/sitodt/modules/documenti_it/analisi_progammazione/working_papers/WP_N_14.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Data revisions; real-time dataset; mixed frequency; Dynamic factor Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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