Metamodeling Approach to Evaluate Agricultural Policy Impact on Soil Degradation in Western Canada (A)

A novel approach for integrating economic and environmental models is described in the context of evaluating soil degradation impacts of agricultural policy in western Canada. The key element of this approach is the development of metamodels, which are statistical summary functions of simulation data obtained from carefully designed experiments with physical process models. The metamodels are in turn used to predict the soil degradation impacts of farmers'land management responses to policy options. The metamodels provide flexibility to perform repeated policy scenarios without having to rerun the time-and resource-consuming physical process simulation models. The estimated wind and water erosion metamodels are very robust, with the majority possessing R-square values in the range of 0ﾷ80 to 0ﾷ97. The efficiency of the metamodels in facilitating the integration of a policy modeling system is described and applied to a scenario of increased crop residue management. Using regional aggregates of net farm income, total economic, surplus (consumer plus producer surplus) and total soil loss the economic and environmental tradeoff between the status quo and a no-till policy scenario is evaluated. The model-predicted economic welfare and environmental quality interaction suggests a clear win-win situation for society under this alternative policy scenario.