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The Role of Global Uncertainty in Shaping Trade Flow Relations: A Cross-Country Analysis for Europe

Author

Listed:
  • António Afonso
  • José Alves
  • Lucas Menescal
  • Sofia Monteiro

Abstract

We examine the effects of World Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risk on Trade flows for 31 European economies between 1995 and 2023. To do so, we resort to Panel estimation techniques, including OLS and Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML). Our findings reveal that European nations primarily respond to global uncertainty by concentrating their exports and imports among top trading partners particularly their top 5 highest trading partners. This result is more pronounced when uncertainty is driven by low-income countries. Moreover, there is a stronger relationship between imports and global uncertainty compared to exports. Our study underscores the importance of European economies strategically adapting their export and import approaches in response to these challenges.

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso & José Alves & Lucas Menescal & Sofia Monteiro, 2024. "The Role of Global Uncertainty in Shaping Trade Flow Relations: A Cross-Country Analysis for Europe," Working Papers REM 2024/0346, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    • Handle: RePEc:ise:remwps:wp03462024
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    Keywords

    Geopolitical Risk; World Uncertainty; Trade Flows; International Trade; European Economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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