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Causalilty for the government budget and economic growth

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  • António Afonso
  • João Tovar Jalles

Abstract

We use a panel of 155 countries for 1970-2010 to study (two-way) causality between government spending, revenue and growth. Our results suggest the existence of weak evidence supporting causality from expenditures or revenues to GDP per capita and provide evidence supporting Wagner’s Law.

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2014. "Causalilty for the government budget and economic growth," Working Papers Department of Economics 2014/07, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    • Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp072014
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    12. Landau, Daniel, 1986. "Government and Economic Growth in the Less Developed Countries: An Empirical Study for 1960-1980," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 35-75, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. António Afonso & Ana Patricia Montes & José M. Domínguez, 2024. "Measuring Tax Burden Efficiency in OECD Countries: An International Comparison," CESifo Working Paper Series 11333, CESifo.
    2. Arvin, Mak B. & Pradhan, Rudra P. & Nair, Mahendhiran S., 2021. "Are there links between institutional quality, government expenditure, tax revenue and economic growth? Evidence from low-income and lower middle-income countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 468-489.
    3. António Afonso & José Alves, 2017. "Reconsidering Wagner’s law: evidence from the functions of the government," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(5), pages 346-350, March.
    4. Ebaid Ali & Bahari Zakaria, 2019. "The Nexus between Government Expenditure and Economic Growth: Evidence of the Wagner’s Law in Kuwait," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, April.
    5. Themba G. Chirwa & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "The nexus between key macroeconomic determinants and economic growth in Zambia: a dynamic multivariate Granger causality linkage," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 301-327, July.
    6. António Afonso & Sérgio Gadelha & Agatha Silva, 2020. "Public Debt And Economic Growth In Brazil," Working Papers REM 2020/0148, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    7. Marco Gallegati & Massimo Tamberi, 2022. "Long swings in the growth of government expenditure: an international historical perspective," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 192(3), pages 227-248, September.
    8. Ali Shaddady, 2022. "Is Government Spending an Important Factor in Economic Growth? Nonlinear Cubic Quantile Nexus from Eastern Europe and Central Asia (EECA)," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-26, November.
    9. Livio Di Matteo & Fraser Summerfield, 2018. "The Shifting Scully Curve: International Evidence from 1870 to 2013," Working Paper series 18-01, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    10. Philip Arestis & Hüseyin Şen & Ayşe Kaya, 2021. "On the linkage between government expenditure and output: empirics of the Keynesian view versus Wagner’s law," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 265-303, May.
    11. Jeyhun A. Abbasov & Khatai Aliyev, 2018. "Testing Wagner's Law and Keynesian Hypothesis in Selected Post-Soviet Countries," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 66(5), pages 1227-1237.
    12. Mega Riandini Arsallya & Azwardi Azward & Yusnaini Yusnaini, 2021. "Analysis of factors affecting capital expenditures and their implications on government financial performance provinces in Indonesia 2011-2019," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 10(5), pages 95-106, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    government expenditures; goverment revenues; panel causality; GMM.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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