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Refugee migration, unemployment and anti-asylum attitudes: Evidence from the 1990s Yugoslav refugee crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Marco Pecoraro
  • Bruno Lanz
  • Didier Ruedin

Abstract

This paper examines the short- to long-term effects of large-scale refugee inflows on labour markets and anti-asylum attitudes. Using the exogenous arrival of Yugoslav refugees to Switzerland in the 1990s and municipal-level data with an instrumental variables strategy, we find that refugee exposure increased unemployment and anti-asylum voting in the short term. Over a decade later, the refugee shock is no longer correlated with unemployment, whereas anti-asylum attitudes not only decline but reverse in areas with higher initial exposure, notably in rural municipalities. These results highlight the temporary nature of labour market disruptions and the longer-term shift in anti-asylum attitudes consistent with contact theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Pecoraro & Bruno Lanz & Didier Ruedin, 2025. "Refugee migration, unemployment and anti-asylum attitudes: Evidence from the 1990s Yugoslav refugee crisis," IRENE Working Papers 25-03, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:irn:wpaper:25-03
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Refugees; Forced Migration; Unemployment; Labour Market Effects; Anti-Asylum Attitudes; Voting Behaviour; Contact Theory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination

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