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"Modelling the dynamic interaction between economic uncertainty, growth, unemployment and suicide"

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  • Oscar Claveria

    (AQR-IREA, Department of Econometrics and Statistics, University of Barcelona, Diagonal 690, 08034 Barcelona, Spain. Tel.: +34-934021825.)

Abstract

Economic uncertainty is a driver of the business cycle. In a recent study, Claveria (2022) used a fixed-effects model to assess the impact of uncertainty on suicide rates worldwide. Using that same panel, in which global economic uncertainty is linked to the evolution of the suicide rates in 183 countries between 2000 and 2019, this work evaluates the dynamic interconnections between unemployment, economic growth, uncertainty and suicide using a dynamic panel model. Overall, the analysis suggests that increases in the growth of economic uncertainty and unemployment may lead to increases in suicide rates growth worldwide. When replicating the experiment for different regions and for groups of countries classified according to their level of income, the greatest impact of increases in economic uncertainty is found in upper middle-income economies. Given the anticipatory nature of economic uncertainty with respect to the evolution of the economy, and its relationship with suicide rates, the obtained results suggest the usefulness of uncertainty indicators as tools for the early detection of periods of increased suicide risk and for the design of suicide prevention strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Oscar Claveria, 2022. ""Modelling the dynamic interaction between economic uncertainty, growth, unemployment and suicide"," IREA Working Papers 202209, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jun 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:ira:wpaper:202209
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pak, Tae-Young & Choung, Youngjoo, 2020. "Relative deprivation and suicide risk in South Korea," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    2. Binge, Laurie H. & Boshoff, Willem H., 2020. "Economic uncertainty in South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 113-131.
    3. Abdou, Rawayda & Cassells, Damien & Berrill, Jenny & Hanly, Jim, 2020. "An empirical investigation of the relationship between business performance and suicide in the US," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    4. R?diger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner & Eric R. Sims, 2013. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 217-249, April.
    5. Khandokar Istiak & Apostolos Serletis, 2018. "Economic policy uncertainty and real output: evidence from the G7 countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(39), pages 4222-4233, August.
    6. Noh, Yong-Hwan, 2009. "Does unemployment increase suicide rates? The OECD panel evidence," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 575-582, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic uncertainty; Suicide; Prevention; Unemployment; Economic growth; Dynamic panel model. JEL classification: C33; C51; I15; J17; O57; Z18.;
    All these keywords.

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