Employment shifts in Europe from 1997 to 2021: from job upgrading to polarisation

This article analyses shifts in employment structures in a selection of eight EU countries, as well as employment dynamics at the aggregate EU level. This is done for four periods, separated by the financial crisis and the outbreak of the COVID-19 crisis. Results show that there is a wide diversity of patterns of structural change across periods and countries in Europe. During the expansive phase of the business cycle, the pattern that was more widespread was job upgrading, with the number of workers increasing more in high-paid jobs (especially in private and public services). During the financial crisis (2008-2010) and the following period (2011-2019), the patterns of structural change were much more diverse. Still, some general lines can be traced. Workers that were hardest hit by the financial crisis were located in the middle of the wage structure. The global financial crisis impacted hardest on male workers and workers that were employed in construction and manufacturing, while the number of workers in public services continued increasing. From 2011, net employment growth was mainly driven by the increase in the size of service jobs, with employment in private services growing in a polarised way and public services promoting upgrading. Finally, the COVID-19 crisis had an asymmetric impact, impacting mainly employment in low-paid in-person service activities and agriculture.