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Impactos da Mudança de Planos de Investimento ao Fim de 2008: Um Exercício de Equilíbrio Econômico Geral

Author

Listed:
  • Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira Filho
  • Aguinaldo Nogueira Maciente
  • Carlos Wagner de Albuquerque Oliveira
  • Danilo Santa Cruz Coelho
  • Divonzir Arthur Gusso
  • Luiz Dias Bahia

Abstract

A pergunta que norteou este trabalho foi a seguinte: Quais as consequências macroeconômicas e setoriais de curto prazo mais evidentes da mudança de planos de investimentos na economia brasileira ocorrida em fins de 2008? Para responder a esta pergunta, construímos dois cenários, um denominado pré-crise, outro pós-crise, para o investimento no Brasil a partir das informações do Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (BNDES). A principal conclusão é que o atual padrão de investimento tende a apreciar a taxa de câmbio real, a aumentar as importações e a diminuir as exportações, o que claramente pode causar problemas de equilíbrio comercial.

Suggested Citation

  • Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira Filho & Aguinaldo Nogueira Maciente & Carlos Wagner de Albuquerque Oliveira & Danilo Santa Cruz Coelho & Divonzir Arthur Gusso & Luiz Dias Bahia, 2011. "Impactos da Mudança de Planos de Investimento ao Fim de 2008: Um Exercício de Equilíbrio Econômico Geral," Discussion Papers 1671, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1671
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