IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ipe/ipetds/1315.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Reservas internacionais ótimas para o Brasil: uma análise simples de custo-benefício para o período 1999-2007

Author

Listed:
  • Marco Antônio F. de H. Cavalcanti
  • Christian Vonbun

Abstract

This paper calculates the optimal level of foreign reserves for Brazil during 1999-2007, by applying various extensions of the Ben-Bassat and Gottlieb (1992b) framework. We also estimate the social loss due to differences between actual and optimal reserves holdings by the Brazilian Central Bank. Our results suggest that, under various alternative scenarios and hypotheses regarding the model´s main parameters, the actual level of reserves in Brazil has become "excessive" around 2005-2006, thereby generating high and increasing costs for the Brazilian economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Antônio F. de H. Cavalcanti & Christian Vonbun, 2007. "Reservas internacionais ótimas para o Brasil: uma análise simples de custo-benefício para o período 1999-2007," Discussion Papers 1315, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1315
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ipea.gov.br/portal/images/stories/PDFs/TDs/td_1315.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Saidi, Nasser, 1981. "The square-root law, uncertainty and international reserves under alternative regimes : Canadian experience, 1950-1976," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 271-290.
    2. Antonio Francisco Silva Jr. & Érica Domingos da Silva, 2004. "Optimal International Reserves Holdings In Emerging Markets Economies: The Brazilian Case," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 078, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    3. Mr. Robert P Flood & Ms. Nancy P. Marion, 2002. "Holding International Reserves in an Era of High Capital Mobility," IMF Working Papers 2002/062, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2008. "Financial versus Monetary Mercantilism: Long‐run View of Large International Reserves Hoarding," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 593-611, May.
    5. Manasse, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 2009. ""Rules of thumb" for sovereign debt crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 192-205, July.
    6. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    7. Feder, Gershon & Just, Richard E., 1977. "An analysis of credit terms in the eurodollar market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 221-243.
    8. repec:ags:ucdavw:225633 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Mr. Romain Ranciere & Mr. Olivier D Jeanne, 2006. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves for Emerging Market Countries: Formulas and Applications," IMF Working Papers 2006/229, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Robert J. Barro, 2001. "Economic Growth in East Asia Before and After the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 8330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo, 2004. "On the empirics of Sudden Stops: the relevance of balance-sheet effects," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
    12. Ricardo Caballero & César Calderón & Luis Felipe Céspedes, 2006. "External Vulnerability and Preventive Policies: An Overview," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Ricardo Caballero & César Calderón & Luis Felipe Céspedes & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Sc (ed.),External Vulnerability and Preventive Policies, edition 1, volume 10, chapter 1, pages 001-014, Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Suheyla Ozyildirim & Bulent Yaman, 2005. "Optimal versus adequate level of international reserves: evidence for Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(13), pages 1557-1569.
    14. Peter B. Clark, 1970. "Demand for International Reserves: A Cross-Country Analysis," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 3(4), pages 577-594, November.
    15. Lizondo, JoseSaul & Mathieson, Donald J., 1987. "The stability of the demand for international reserves," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 251-282, September.
    16. Hong G. Min, 1998. "Determinants of emerging market bond spread : do economic fundamentals matter?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1899, The World Bank.
    17. Gottlieb, Daniel, 1987. "On the Determinants of a Country's Creditworthiness - The Case of Israel: 1971 to 1983," MPRA Paper 3147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Steven B. Kamin & Karsten von Kleist, 1999. "The evolution and determinants of emerging market credit spreads in the 1990s," International Finance Discussion Papers 653, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Ben-Bassat, Avraham & Gottlieb, Daniel, 1992. "On the Effect of Opportunity Cost on International Reserve Holdings," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(2), pages 329-332, May.
    20. M. Bahmani-Oskooee & F. Brown, 2002. "Demand for international reserves: a review article," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(10), pages 1209-1226.
    21. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
    22. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Bank for International Settlements, 2005. "Foreign exchange market intervention in emerging markets: motives, techniques and implications," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 24.
    24. Claudio Soto & Alberto Naudon & Eduardo López & Alvaro Aguirre, 2004. "Acerca del Nivel Adecuado de las Reservas Internacionales," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 267, Central Bank of Chile.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Meurer, 2016. "Portfolio Investment Flows, GDP, and Investment in Brazil," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(12), pages 1-9, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Fernando López Angarita, 2006. "Nivel de reservas internacionales y riesgo cambiario en Colombia," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 8(15), pages 117-159, July-Dece.
    2. Joshua Aizenman & Brian Pinto, 2013. "Managing Financial Integration and Capital Mobility—Policy Lessons from the Past Two Decades," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 636-653, September.
    3. Mendoza, Ronald U., 2010. "Was the Asian crisis a wake-up call?: Foreign reserves as self-protection," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-19, February.
    4. Aizenman, Joshua & Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ito, Hiro, 2015. "International reserves before and after the global crisis: Is there no end to hoarding?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 102-126.
    5. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    6. David Fernando LOPEZ ANGARITA, 2006. "Nivel óptimo de Reservas Internacionales y crisis cambiaria en Colombia," Archivos de Economía 3273, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    7. Yin-Wong Cheung & Hiro Ito, 2009. "A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis of International Reserves," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 447-481.
    8. Ben Hassine Khalladi, hela, 2015. "Financial Crisis Management in Emerging Countries: Optimal Level of International Reserves and Ex Ante Conditions for an International Lender of Last Resort Intervention," MPRA Paper 96151, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Mr. Stanley B Watt & Mr. Donal McGettigan & Mr. Saade Chami, 2007. "Jordan’s International Reserve Position: Justifiably Strong," IMF Working Papers 2007/103, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Lorenzoni, Guido, 2014. "International Financial Crises," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 689-740, Elsevier.
    11. Yin-wong Cheung & Hiro Ito, 2008. "Hoarding of International Reserves: A Comparison of the Asian and Latin American Experiences," Working Papers 072008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    12. Andrés Mauricio Vargas P., 2008. "Flujos de capitales, restricciones de liquidez y paradas súbitas: lecciones de países emergentes," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, December.
    13. Diego Bastourre & Jorge Carrera & Javier Ibarlucia, 2009. "What is Driving Reserve Accumulation? A Dynamic Panel Data Approach," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 861-877, September.
    14. Ramachandran, M., 2006. "On the upsurge of foreign exchange reserves in India," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 797-809, October.
    15. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    16. Steininger, Lea & Hesse, Casimir, 2024. "Buying into new ideas: The ECB’s evolving justification of unlimited liquidity," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 357, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    17. Eijffinger Sylvester C. W. & Goderis Benedikt, 2007. "Currency Crises, Monetary Policy and Corporate Balance Sheets," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 309-343, August.
    18. Alfaro, Laura & Kanczuk, Fabio, 2009. "Optimal reserve management and sovereign debt," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 23-36, February.
    19. Matthieu Bussière, 2013. "Balance of payment crises in emerging markets: how early were the ‘early’ warning signals?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(12), pages 1601-1623, April.
    20. Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira & Lauro Gonzalez & Cláudio Lucinda, 2008. "Crises financeiras nos anos 1990 e poupança externa [Financial crises of the 1990s and current account deficits]," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 18(3), pages 327-357, September.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1315. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Fabio Schiavinatto (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipeaabr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.