Determinantes do "Milagre" Econômico Brasileiro (1968 - 1973): Uma Análise Empírica

The goal of this paper is to quantify, using a growth regression methodology with panel data, the importance of possible determinants of the Brazilian economic "miracle" of 1968-1973. In particular, we verify to what extent the "miracle" was due to the favourable external environment, to the economic policy variables in the period 1968-1973 and to the institutional reforms of the 1964-1966 Paeg economic program. The results show that both the external environment and the economic policy variables explain a relatively small fraction of the growth acceleration between 1962-1967 and 1968-1973. This is due to the fact that the growth model estimated using a six-year panel overestimates considerably the Brazilian economic growth in the period that preceded the "miracle" and underestimates the growth rate for the "miracle" period. The results show, however, that the model estimated using a tenyear panel predicts a growth rate for Brazil during the period 1964-1973 that is very close to the one observed during this period. Taken together, our results indicate that the growth acceleration episode associated with the "miracle" was due to a large extent to the delayed effect of the reforms associated with the Paeg.