Cenários para a Relação Dívida Pública/PIB: simulações e perspectivas de redução da carga Tributária e da relação gasto corrente/PIB

This paper analyses the prospective of the evolution of the public debt/Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio along the next four administrations, within a context of GDP growth rate of 4% to 5% and declining interest rates. It is shown that the reduction of public indebtedness, which began in the current Administration, can be deepened during the next one. Bearing this in mind, it is suggested to eliminate the PSBR in 2009, through a new and modest fiscal adjustment in 2007-2008. Thus, the lower financial burden of interest rates would open way to reduce the primary surplus, smoothly up to 2010 and strongly in the following decade. In this scenario, it would be feasible to reduce the tax burden while gradually increasing the public investment, as long as current expenditures are properly controlled. Under these circumstances, it is proposed to achieve a nominal surplus and the elimination of the net public sector debt up to 2022, as a powerful tool to stimulate growth.