IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iob/wpaper/2025.05.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Effects of external capital inflows on industrialization in developing countries: evidence from ASEAN-4 economies

Author

Listed:
  • Corpus, John Paul
  • Cassimon, Danny

Abstract

We examine the effect of net capital inflows on industrialization in the ASEAN-4 countries of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. Using panel data covering 1980–2018, we estimate the influence of both aggregate and disaggregated net capital inflows on the manufacturing sector’s share in employment and real output. We find that aggregate net capital inflows have a negative influence on the manufacturing share of employment. Disaggregating capital inflows reveals that the negative effects emanate from non-FDI inflows, particularly portfolio investment and portfolio debt inflows. Meanwhile, FDI inflows have a positive effect on the manufacturing share of output. Our findings are consistent with existing evidence on the effects of aggregate capital inflows and non-FDI inflows on the manufacturing sector. We make a novel contribution for the ASEAN-4 by tracing the negative effects of non-FDI inflows to portfolio investment and portfolio debt, and uncovering the positive ffect of FDI on manufacturing’s output share. Our findings imply that policymakers in developing countries must pay attention to the influence that capital inflows exert on structural change and their industrialization efforts.

Suggested Citation

  • Corpus, John Paul & Cassimon, Danny, 2025. "Effects of external capital inflows on industrialization in developing countries: evidence from ASEAN-4 economies," IOB Working Papers 2025.05, Universiteit Antwerpen, Institute of Development Policy (IOB).
    • Handle: RePEc:iob:wpaper:2025.05
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://medialibrary.uantwerpen.be/files/2137/9b5c10a7-f9b6-478e-a990-7182a809865f.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sen,Kunal, 2023. "Varieties of Structural Transformation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781009449953, January.
    2. Thorbecke, Willem & Salike, Nimesh, 2011. "Understanding Foreign Direct Investment in East Asia," ADBI Working Papers 290, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    3. Christopher F Baum & Mark E. Schaffer & Steven Stillman, 2003. "Instrumental variables and GMM: Estimation and testing," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 3(1), pages 1-31, March.
    4. M Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 8-62, April.
    5. Rafael E. De Hoyos & Vasilis Sarafidis, 2006. "Testing for cross-sectional dependence in panel-data models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 6(4), pages 482-496, December.
    6. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
    7. Teimouri, Sheida & Zietz, Joachim, 2018. "The impact of surges in net private capital inflows on manufacturing, investment, and unemployment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 158-170.
    8. Benigno, Gianluca & Converse, Nathan & Fornaro, Luca, 2015. "Large capital inflows, sectoral allocation, and economic performance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 60-87.
    9. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
    10. Gui-Diby, Steve Loris & Renard, Mary-Françoise, 2015. "Foreign Direct Investment Inflows and the Industrialization of African Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 43-57.
    11. Henning Mühlen & Octavio Escobar, 2020. "The role of FDI in structural change: Evidence from Mexico," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 557-585, March.
    12. Olivier Blanchard & Jonathan D. Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Marcos Chamon, 2017. "Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(3), pages 563-585, August.
    13. David M. Drukker, 2003. "Testing for serial correlation in linear panel-data models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 3(2), pages 168-177, June.
    14. M Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 8-62, April.
    15. Christopher F Baum & Mark E. Schaffer & Steven Stillman, 2007. "Enhanced routines for instrumental variables/generalized method of moments estimation and testing," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 7(4), pages 465-506, December.
    16. Zsolt Darvas, 2021. "Timely measurement of real effective exchange rates," Bruegel Working Papers 46497, Bruegel.
    17. David Jones & Corrado Di Maria & Simone Valente, 2021. "Financial Intermediation and Structural Change: Theory and Evidence," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2021-06, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    18. Hagen Kruse & Emmanuel Mensah & Kunal Sen & Gaaitzen Vries, 2023. "A Manufacturing (Re)Naissance? Industrialization in the Developing World," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 439-473, June.
    19. Daniel Hoechle, 2007. "Robust standard errors for panel regressions with cross-sectional dependence," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 7(3), pages 281-312, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Teimouri, Sheida & Zietz, Joachim, 2018. "The impact of surges in net private capital inflows on manufacturing, investment, and unemployment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 158-170.
    2. Bechlioulis, Alexandros & Economidou, Claire & Karamanis, Dimitrios & Konstantios, Dimitrios, 2023. "How important are capital controls in shaping innovation activity?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    3. John Bosco Nnyanzi & Susan Kavuma & John Sseruyange & Aisha Nanyiti, 2022. "The manufacturing output effects of infrastructure development, liberalization and governance: evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 49(2), pages 369-400, June.
    4. Ćorić, Bruno & Pugh, Geoff, 2013. "Foreign direct investment and output growth volatility: A worldwide analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 260-271.
    5. Emre Özçelik & Erdal Özmen, 2020. "Premature Deindustrialisation: The International Evidence," ERC Working Papers 2001, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Sep 2020.
    6. Chimere O. Iheonu, 2019. "Governance and Domestic Investment in Africa," Working Papers 19/001, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    7. Bertoli, Simone & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2013. "Multilateral resistance to migration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 79-100.
    8. Beck, Thorsten & Poelhekke, Steven, 2023. "Follow the money: Does the financial sector intermediate natural resource windfalls?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    9. Reto Föllmi & Angela Fuest & Philipp an de Meulen & Martin Micheli & Torsten Schmidt & Lina Zwick, 2018. "Openness and productivity of the Swiss economy," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 154(1), pages 1-21, December.
    10. Elisangela Araujo & Eliane de Araújo & Mateus Ribeiro da Fonseca & Paulo Mourão, 2023. "External shocks and monetary policy under the inflation targeting regime (ITR): an analysis of the determinants of inflation for the period 2000-2021," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 76(306), pages 293-311.
    11. Anastasia Petraki & Anna Zalewska, 2013. "With whom and in what is it better to save? Personal pensions in the UK," The Centre for Market and Public Organisation 13/304, The Centre for Market and Public Organisation, University of Bristol, UK.
    12. Poumanyvong, Phetkeo & Kaneko, Shinji & Dhakal, Shobhakar, 2012. "Impacts of urbanization on national transport and road energy use: Evidence from low, middle and high income countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 268-277.
    13. Atanas CHRISTEV & Jacques MELITZ, 2010. "EMU, EU, Capital Market Integration and Consumption Smoothing," Working Papers 2010-06, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    14. Taiyang Zhong & Xianjin Huang & Lifang Ye & Steffanie Scott, 2014. "The Impacts on Illegal Farmland Conversion of Adopting Remote Sensing Technology for Land Inspection in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(7), pages 1-26, July.
    15. Bilge Erten & Anton Korinek & José Antonio Ocampo, 2021. "Capital Controls: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 45-89, March.
    16. Vanja Grozdić & Branislav Marić & Mladen Radišić & Jarmila Šebestová & Marcin Lis, 2020. "Capital Investments and Manufacturing Firms’ Performance: Panel-Data Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-18, February.
    17. Opoku, Eric Evans Osei & Dogah, Kingsley E. & Aluko, Olufemi Adewale, 2022. "The contribution of human development towards environmental sustainability," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    18. Bonatti, Luigi & Fracasso, Andrea, 2013. "Hoarding of international reserves in China: Mercantilism, domestic consumption and US monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1044-1078.
    19. Cotte Poveda Alexander, 2011. "Socio-Economic Development and Violence: An Empirical Application for Seven Metropolitan Areas in Colombia," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-23, September.
    20. Jaromír Baxa & Michal Paulus, 2024. "Exchange rate misalignments, growth, and institutions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 1705-1799, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital inflows; structural change; premature deindustrialization; ASEAN-4;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iob:wpaper:2025.05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Hans De Backer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iobuabe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.