Jobs and violence: evidence from a policy experiment in DR Congo

Can job creation help decrease violence in conflict-affected regions? We study this question in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where the construction of three hydropower stations in North-Kivu generated nearly 60,000 one-month labor contracts for residents of the hosting chiefdoms. To quantify the impact on violence, we analyze close to 9,000 conflict events from 2009 to 2022 across 21 chiefdoms in North-Kivu, comparing trends and patterns of violence between ‘treated’ and ‘comparison’ chiefdoms. Our findings indicate that the labor-intensive construction program significantly reduced violence, with effects lasting up to 18 months after program end. We observe a 93% decline in the number of monthly conflict events in chiefdoms where the program was implemented. The reduction in violence was most pronounced in chiefdoms with the highest per capita wage injection. In the most remote, rebel-controlled chiefdom, the reduction in violence against civilians was preceded by a temporary surge in battles between the military and armed groups, likely representing the 'clear' phase of the 'clear, hold, build' counterinsurgency strategy.