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Methodological Issues of Medium-Term Macroeconomic Projections - The Case of Potential Output

Author

Listed:
  • Gustav Horn

    (IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation)

  • Camille Logeay

    (IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation)

  • Silke Tober

    (IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation)

Abstract

Potential output measures a country's attainable aggregate living standard and is thus one of the most important categories of economics. It is also a key indicator for monetary and fiscal policy. Despite its prominence, however, potential output is a difficult concept to pinpoint theoretically and even more so empirically. The study discusses these difficulties and also the marked revision of potential output estimates by major international organisations. The authors furthermore present the results of their attempts to quantify Germany's potential output based on a production function approach coupled with the Kalman-filter technique to estimate the NAIRU. The authors find that potential output and potential output growth greatly depend on how the NAIRU and potential total factor productivity are modelled. Given the difficulties involved in robustly estimating potential output, especially in real time, economic policy makers need to learn to pursue their policy objectives without reference to this variable.

Suggested Citation

  • Gustav Horn & Camille Logeay & Silke Tober, 2007. "Methodological Issues of Medium-Term Macroeconomic Projections - The Case of Potential Output," IMK Studies 04-2007, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:imk:studie:04-2007
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    Cited by:

    1. Fontanari, Claudia & Palumbo, Antonella & Salvatori, Chiara, 2020. "Potential Output in Theory and Practice: A Revision and Update of Okun's Original Method," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 247-266.
    2. Silke Tober, 2014. "Debt Redemption Fund: Conditio Sine Qua Non? Government Bonds in the Euro Area Crisis," IMK Working Paper 131-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    3. Serguei Kaniovski & Hans Pitlik & Sandra Steindl & Thomas Url, 2008. "A Decomposition of Austria's General Government Budget into Structural and Cyclical Components," WIFO Working Papers 316, WIFO.
    4. Alexander Herzog-Stein & Fabian Lindner & Simon Sturn & Till van Treeck, 2010. "Vom Krisenherd zum Wunderwerk?," IMK Report 56-2010, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

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