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Mehr oeffentlicher Wohnungsbau zum Erhalt der Kapazitaeten?

Author

Listed:
  • Lukas Jonas

    (Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg)

  • Carolin Martin

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Thomas Theobald

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

Abstract

Der Wohnungsbau in Deutschland hat bis zum Jahr 2022 einen ueber eine Dekade waehrenden Aufschwung erfahren, der sich neben nachfrageseitigen Faktoren insbesondere auf guenstige Finanzierungsbedingungen stuetzte. Mit den Energiepreisschocks aufgrund des Ukraine-Kriegs und den darauffolgenden Zinserhoehungen der Europaeischen Zentralbank hat sich der Ausblick fuer das Baugewerbe insgesamt deutlich verschlechtert. Der vorliegende Policy Brief schaetzt auf Basis uebersichtlicher Kointegration-Spezifikationen wichtige Kenngroessen der Bauaktivitaet und prognostiziert ihre zukuenftige Entwicklung. Zwar sind die geschaetzten Spezifikationen mit grosser Unsicherheit verbunden und sollten deshalb vor allem als Risikoszenario gesehen werden; die prognostizierte Entwicklung ist allerdings erheblich: Danach wuerden die realen Wohnungsbauinvestitionen (Bruttowertschoepfung des Baugewerbes) 2023 und 2024 um 20,9 Mrd. Euro (13,4 Mrd. Euro) bzw. 16,4 Mrd. Euro (10,6 Mrd. Euro) zurueckgehen. Die Baufertigstellungen werden der modellierten Spezifikation zufolge von 295.000 Wohnungen 2022 auf 223.000 Wohnungen 2023 und 177.000 Wohnungen 2024 fallen. Die Projektion fuer 2024 uebertrifft den 2009 erreichten historischen Tiefststand der Wohnungsbautaetigkeit nur noch leicht. Um angesichts dieses drohenden Einbruchs der Bauaktivitaet einen anhaltenden Kapazitaetsabbau im Baugewerbe zu verhindern, der auch mittel- bis langfristig das verfuegbare Angebot weit hinter dem Bedarf zurueckbleiben laesst, empfiehlt der Policy Brief einen auf die tatsaechliche Entwicklung in dem Sektor konditionierte Ausweitung des oeffentlichen Wohnungbaus.

Suggested Citation

  • Lukas Jonas & Carolin Martin & Thomas Theobald, 2023. "Mehr oeffentlicher Wohnungsbau zum Erhalt der Kapazitaeten?," IMK Policy Brief 155-2023, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:imk:pbrief:155-2023
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    References listed on IDEAS

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