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Beyond the Dikes: Flood Scenarios for Financial Stability Risk Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Caterina Lepore
  • Mr. Junghwan Mok

Abstract

We assess financial stability risks from floods in the Netherlands using a comprehensive set of flood scenarios considering different factors including geographical regions, flood types, climate conditions, return periods, and adaptation. The estimated damage from each flood scenario is used to calibrate the corresponding macro-financial scenario for bank stress tests. Our results show the importance of considering these heterogeneous factors when conducting physical climate risk stress tests, as the impact of floods on bank capital varies significantly by scenario. We find that climate change amplifies the adverse impact on banks’ capital, but stronger flood defenses in the Netherlands can help mitigate some impacts. Further, we find a non-linear relationship between flood damages and banks’ capital depletion, highlighting the importance of considering extreme scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Caterina Lepore & Mr. Junghwan Mok, 2024. "Beyond the Dikes: Flood Scenarios for Financial Stability Risk Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2024/197, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/197
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