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Climate Variability and Worldwide Migration: Empirical Evidence and Projections

Author

Listed:
  • Cristina Cattaneo
  • Emanuele Massetti
  • Shouro Dasgupta
  • Fabio Farinosi

Abstract

We estimate a bilateral gravity equation for emigration rates controlling for decadal weather averages of temperature, precipitation, droughts, and extreme precipitation in origin countries. Using the parameter estimates of the gravity equation, we estimate global, regional, and country-by-country emigration flows using different population and climate scenarios. Global emigration flows are projected to increase between 73 and 91 million in 2030-2039; between 83 and 102 million in 2040-2049; between 88 and 121 in 2050-59, and between 87 and 133 million in 2060-2069. Changes in emigration flows are mainly due to population growth in the origin countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Cristina Cattaneo & Emanuele Massetti & Shouro Dasgupta & Fabio Farinosi, 2024. "Climate Variability and Worldwide Migration: Empirical Evidence and Projections," IMF Working Papers 2024/058, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/058
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    Keywords

    Climate change; International Migration.; A. migration data; country-by-country emigration flow; climate scenario; climate variability; gravity equation; Migration; Natural disasters; Population growth; Global;
    All these keywords.

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